Last week, you might have seen that VTEX (NYSE:VTEX) released its second-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to US$4.18 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$64m were what the analysts expected, VTEX surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.058 per share, an impressive 43% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on VTEX after the latest results.

Following the latest results, VTEX's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$285.0m in 2026. This would be a decent 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 15% to US$0.21. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$267.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.19 in 2026. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about VTEX's future following the latest results, with a decent improvement in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$5.96, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic VTEX analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.10. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting VTEX's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 27% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 16% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect VTEX to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around VTEX's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$5.96, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple VTEX analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.