Tariffs on South African citrus and rising supply chain costs are reshaping how fresh produce moves into US supermarkets, which can affect margins for food and beverage stocks. For investors watching the Consumer Staples space, these shifts in trade flows, input costs and pricing power create both potential opportunities and risks. This article focuses on three US listed stocks with exposure to fresh produce importing, distributing or retailing in the context of the current citrus tariff backdrop. Each stock is drawn from our targeted screener and reviewed through the lens of these recent policy and cost pressures.

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ)

Overview: BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings operates membership based warehouse clubs across the eastern United States, selling groceries, fresh food, general merchandise, fuel and related services through its clubs, website and mobile app.

Operations: BJ's generates about US$22.0b in revenue from its Club Retail Operations segment, all from customers in the United States.

Market Cap: US$11.4b

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings stands out in fresh produce and food retail because its membership model and growing club network help support recurring income, while tariff refunds on citrus imports have recently given it room to sharpen prices. The stock screens as attractive on valuation against an internal fair value estimate and peers. However, earnings growth is relatively modest and recent profitability has softened, so investors need to weigh potential value against execution risk. High ROE and record membership fee income point to a resilient core business. At the same time, a debt heavy capital structure, insider selling and ongoing margin pressure mean the full story is more complex than a simple warehouse club growth pitch.

Recurring membership income, tariff refunds and recent margin questions make BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings feel like a valuation story investors have not fully pieced together yet, and the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign could surface the twist that changes how you see it

Walmart (WMT)

Overview: Walmart is a global retailer that runs supermarkets, supercenters, warehouse clubs and ecommerce platforms, selling everything from fresh groceries and household essentials to electronics, apparel and financial services across physical stores and digital channels.

Operations: Walmart generates about US$490.9b in revenue from Walmart U.S., US$137.4b from Walmart International, US$97.0b from Sam's Club and a small amount from Corporate and Support.

Market Cap: US$890.0b

Walmart sits at the center of the fresh produce trade, so any decision on citrus tariffs and import costs feeds directly into how it prices fruit and staples for US shoppers, and how much margin it keeps for itself. The company is leaning into higher margin areas like advertising, Walmart+ memberships and marketplace services. It is also using AI tools to improve its supply chain, delivery windows and inventory planning, which can help offset tariff and logistics cost pressure discussed on recent calls. At the same time, a rich P/E, high debt reliance and ongoing tariff and wage headwinds mean there is little room for error. For investors, the key consideration is whether those new profit streams and cost tools justify paying a higher valuation for Walmart before the full tariff story plays out.

Walmart’s rich P/E and growing higher margin engines like advertising and memberships hint that investors may be missing how its earnings mix is shifting, and the analyst forecasts for Walmart could show what that means before tariffs fully bite

Costco Wholesale (COST)

Overview: Costco Wholesale operates membership based warehouse clubs around the world, selling a focused range of low priced groceries, fresh food, household items and services such as fuel, pharmacy and optical to loyal fee paying members.

Operations: Costco Wholesale generates about US$293.6b in revenue from its Membership Warehouses business, with around US$212.2b from the United States, US$39.7b from Canada and US$41.8b from other international markets.

Market Cap: US$422.0b

Costco Wholesale offers investors a mix of scale, pricing power and recurring membership income, which can matter even more when tariffs increase costs for imported citrus and other produce. High renewal rates, a growing share of executive memberships and strong digital sales support earnings quality. Management has also worked with suppliers, adjusted sourcing and refined product assortments to help mitigate tariff and freight pressures. The trade off is that the stock trades at a premium and has been described as “priced for perfection,” which can create valuation risk if growth or margins fall short of expectations. For investors, a key consideration is whether Costco’s membership model and fresh produce traffic are sufficient to support that premium as citrus tariffs and broader import costs change over time.

Costco Wholesale’s premium price tag and powerful membership engine suggest investors may be missing a crucial angle in its fresh produce story, and the analyst forecasts for Costco Wholesale could reveal how tariffs and traffic are really interacting.

The three stocks covered here are only a starting point, and the full screener has surfaced 10 more US based Consumer Staples companies in food and beverage, each with its own fresh produce and tariff story that could be just as compelling as BJ's, Walmart or Costco. To identify the highest conviction ideas, you can use Simply Wall St to filter this Consumer Staples - Food & Beverage (Fresh Produce Importers/Distributors/Retailers) screener by catalysts such as tariff exposure, fresh produce import reliance, and membership or recurring income narratives so you can analyze which stocks best fit your own thesis.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.