• In March 2026, Neurocrine Biosciences presented new expert consensus recommendations and fresh INGREZZA (valbenazine) data on older adults with tardive dyskinesia at the PALTC26 conference in Anaheim, highlighting care challenges in long-term care settings.
• The company underscored INGREZZA’s differentiated clinical profile for seniors, including no required dose titration and a sprinkle formulation, alongside patient-reported improvements in symptoms, quality of life and functional impairment.
• Next, we will assess how these new TD care recommendations and older-adult INGREZZA data could influence Neurocrine’s broader investment narrative.

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Neurocrine Biosciences Investment Narrative Recap

To own Neurocrine, you need to believe INGREZZA can remain a durable cash generator while the broader CNS pipeline matures, despite pricing pressure and payer scrutiny. The new long term care data and TD care recommendations for older adults appear directionally supportive of INGREZZA’s clinical profile, but they do not fundamentally change the near term catalyst around Medicare contracting or the key risk from potential pricing and access headwinds.

Among recent developments, the company’s 2026 guidance for INGREZZA net product sales of US$2,700 million to US$2,800 million is most relevant here, since the PALTC26 data and expert consensus speak directly to older TD patients who are central to that revenue base. How effectively Neurocrine turns these new recommendations and outcomes into real world prescribing and sustained coverage will sit alongside that guidance as investors watch upcoming quarters.

Yet, even if INGREZZA’s position in older adults looks stronger after PALTC26, investors should still be aware of the risk that…

Neurocrine Biosciences' narrative projects $4.2 billion revenue and $1.1 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 13.5% yearly revenue growth and a $621.4 million earnings increase from $478.6 million today.

Uncover how Neurocrine Biosciences' forecasts yield a $178.04 fair value, a 35% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming revenue could reach about US$4.1 billion and earnings US$1.0 billion by 2028, so if you think older adult TD data meaningfully strengthens INGREZZA’s long term role, you might lean closer to that view, while others may worry that greater Medicare scrutiny and pricing pressure could still dominate the story.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Neurocrine Biosciences - why the stock might be worth just $178.04!

The Verdict Is Yours

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Neurocrine Biosciences research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Neurocrine Biosciences research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Neurocrine Biosciences' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.