We feel now is a pretty good time to analyse Aemetis, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AMTX) business as it appears the company may be on the cusp of a considerable accomplishment. Aemetis, Inc. operates as a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company. The US$117m market-cap company posted a loss in its most recent financial year of US$77m and a latest trailing-twelve-month loss of US$74m shrinking the gap between loss and breakeven. As path to profitability is the topic on Aemetis' investors mind, we've decided to gauge market sentiment. We've put together a brief outline of industry analyst expectations for the company, its year of breakeven and its implied growth rate.

Consensus from 4 of the American Oil and Gas analysts is that Aemetis is on the verge of breakeven. They expect the company to post a final loss in 2027, before turning a profit of US$56m in 2028. So, the company is predicted to breakeven approximately 2 years from today. What rate will the company have to grow year-on-year in order to breakeven on this date? Using a line of best fit, we calculated an average annual growth rate of 59%, which signals high confidence from analysts. If this rate turns out to be too aggressive, the company may become profitable much later than analysts predict.

Given this is a high-level overview, we won’t go into details of Aemetis' upcoming projects, though, bear in mind that generally energy companies, depending on the stage of operation and resource produced, have irregular periods of cash flow. This means that a high growth rate is not unusual, especially if the company is currently in an investment period.

Before we wrap up, there’s one issue worth mentioning. Aemetis currently has negative equity on its balance sheet. This can sometimes arise from accounting methods used to deal with accumulated losses from prior years, which are viewed as liabilities carried forward until it cancels out in the future. These losses tend to occur only on paper, however, in other cases it can be forewarning.

Next Steps:

There are too many aspects of Aemetis to cover in one brief article, but the key fundamentals for the company can all be found in one place – Aemetis' company page on Simply Wall St. We've also put together a list of essential factors you should look at:

1. Historical Track Record: What has Aemetis' performance been like over the past? Go into more detail in the past track record analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of our analysis for more clarity.
2. Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on Aemetis' board and the CEO’s background.
3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.