BofA Securities says the U.S. airline sector remains fundamentally strong despite the temporary turbulence caused by the government shutdown.

The firm highlights that core demand drivers—premium-cabin strength, stabilizing main-cabin trends, and a recovery in corporate travel—continue to anchor the industry across major carriers:

• American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL)
• Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL)
• United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL)
• Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV)
• JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ:JBLU)
• Alaska Air (NYSE:ALK)
• Frontier Airlines (NASDAQ:ULCC)

BofA notes that while the shutdown created short-term operational noise, including cancellations, delays, and near-term earnings pressure, the impact is largely a one-off external shock rather than a sign of weakening travel demand.

The firm highlights ongoing capacity discipline, with airlines trimming domestic supply into early 2026. First-quarter 2026 capacity growth has dropped to roughly 1.3%, aided significantly by Spirit's aggressive pullbacks. This supply tightening supports pricing power across the group.

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TSA throughput showed strong early-October traffic tied to holiday timing, but volumes softened later in the month as shutdown-driven disruptions weighed on travel. BofA says the pace of operational recovery heading into Thanksgiving will be critical for fourth-quarter results.

Despite seasonal weakness in September and October, airline stocks have rebounded in November, with the group outperforming the S&P 500.

BofA expects earnings pressure from the shutdown to fade quickly as carriers rebook travelers and manage capacity strategically.

Overall, BofA maintains a constructive outlook for 2026, supported by disciplined supply, premium-cabin resilience, and business-travel improvements.

Airline-Specific Updates

American Airlines: The airline announced that due to the ongoing government shutdown and resulting air-traffic control staff shortages, it has reduced scheduled flights by about 6 % at 40 major U.S. airports for November 11–12, in compliance with the FAA directive.

Delta Air Lines: Delta confirmed it is complying with an FAA/U.S. Dept. of Transportation directive to reduce flights at 40 major airports beginning Nov 7, due to staffing shortages tied to the shutdown, and is offering customers flexible refund/cancellation options.

Price Action: AAL shares are trading 1.89% lower at $13.21, DAL is down 0.21% at $60.34, and UAL shares are down 1.10% at $98.93 at last check Thursday.

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