• In early August 2026, Backblaze reported past second-quarter 2026 results showing sales of US$42.71 million and a smaller net loss of US$5.09 million, alongside higher full-year 2026 revenue guidance of US$172.0–174.0 million and a new US$44.4–44.8 million revenue outlook for the third quarter.
• At the same time, Backblaze highlighted growing traction in AI-related storage, including its AI-focused B2 Overdrive offering and a US$335 million agreement with CoreWeave to support large-scale AI workloads.
• Next, we’ll examine how Backblaze’s raised full-year revenue guidance could influence the company’s investment narrative and longer-term risk-reward balance.

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Backblaze Investment Narrative Recap

To own Backblaze, you need to believe its B2 cloud platform can offset a structurally shrinking Computer Backup business while the company works toward better unit economics. The key near term catalyst is whether AI storage demand, including from large customers, keeps supporting revenue growth. The biggest risk remains revenue concentration and pricing pressure in a very competitive cloud market. The latest results and raised guidance support the near term growth story, but do not remove those risks.

The most relevant update here is Backblaze’s higher full year 2026 revenue outlook of US$172.0–174.0 million, up from US$161.5–163.5 million. This revision, paired with new third quarter guidance of US$44.4–44.8 million, ties directly into the AI storage ramp and B2 Overdrive traction the company is showcasing at Ai4 2026, and will likely frame how investors weigh the upside from AI workloads against ongoing concentration and competitive risks.

Yet against this brighter revenue outlook, investors should be aware that concentration in a few large AI customers could still...

Backblaze's narrative projects $201.4 million revenue and $15.7 million earnings by 2029.

Uncover how Backblaze's forecasts yield a $9.34 fair value, a 50% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The most cautious analysts assume roughly 23 percent annual revenue growth and no profits within three years, so if you worry about AI customer concentration risk, their more skeptical view may better reflect your comfort level while you consider whether this quarter’s stronger guidance ultimately shifts those expectations.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Backblaze - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Backblaze research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Backblaze research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Backblaze's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.