• In early June 2026, reports indicated that OpenAI was evaluating Fermi Inc.’s Project Matador AI power campus, with the companies reportedly close to a major commercial capacity agreement.
• Alongside repeated activist communications by major shareholder Toby R. Neugebauer on LinkedIn and X, the potential OpenAI deal has drawn fresh attention to Fermi’s multi‑gigawatt Amarillo power buildout.
• Next, we’ll examine how the potential OpenAI capacity agreement could reshape Fermi’s investment narrative around long-term power demand.

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Fermi Investment Narrative Recap

To own Fermi, you need to believe its Amarillo campus becomes a key dedicated power source for AI and other energy hungry computing tenants. The OpenAI evaluation and potential capacity deal directly touch the biggest near term catalyst: signing anchor tenants for Project Matador. At the same time, the most immediate risk remains unchanged: Fermi is pre revenue, heavily capital intensive and still depends on converting talks into binding, multi party power agreements.

Among recent developments, the series of public communications by major shareholder Toby R. Neugebauer around Fermi’s June 2026 shareholder meetings is especially relevant. His activism has highlighted alternative paths for funding and governance at a moment when Fermi has secured project level financing like the Yorkville Note and is advancing permits for up to 17 GW at Matador, all of which could influence how quickly tenant contracts and project level debt come together.

Yet underneath the excitement, investors should be aware that concentration in a small number of very large tenants could...

Fermi’s narrative projects $4.1 billion in revenue and $2.5 billion in earnings by 2029, implying an earnings increase of about $3.0 billion from -$529.8 million today.

Uncover how Fermi's forecasts yield a $23.11 fair value, a 233% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest estimate analysts were far more cautious, assuming about US$3.9 billion of revenue and US$2.5 billion of earnings by 2029, and treating the risk of relying on a few hyperscale tenants as a key concern, reminding you that reasonable people can look at the same OpenAI news and reach very different conclusions that may later reshape these pre news forecasts.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Fermi - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

Decide For Yourself

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Fermi research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Fermi research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Fermi's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.