Hess Midstream (HESM) has drawn investor attention after reporting second quarter 2026 results on 3 August and issuing updated earnings guidance for the third quarter and full year 2026.

Hess Midstream’s share price has climbed 17.0% year to date to US$40.53. The 3 year total shareholder return of 77.7% and 5 year total shareholder return of 151.8% point to momentum that has built over time around its midstream footprint.

If this earnings update has you thinking about where else cash flow infrastructure could matter for your portfolio, it might be worth checking out 38 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

Hess Midstream now trades at a premium to the average analyst target, yet internal fair value estimates sit far higher. Is the recent share price move a step toward intrinsic value, or is it already ahead of it?

Most Popular Narrative: 10% Overvalued

The most followed Hess Midstream narrative sees fair value at $36.83, which sits below the latest close at $40.53, and frames the stock as pricing in more than the core model assumes.

Analysts have pointed to limited clarity on long term growth and sponsor actions, which they see as key inputs for assessing whether Hess Midstream can justify a higher trading range over time or whether the current level already reflects execution and balance sheet strengths.

Want to see what sits underneath that caution on growth and sponsor behavior? The narrative leans on detailed paths for throughput, margins and future earnings multiples. The specific mix of modest revenue expansion, rising profitability and buyback driven share count changes is what shapes the fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $36.83 (OVERVALUED)

However, the Hess Midstream narrative could be tested if Bakken development under Chevron slows, or if sponsor decisions shift capital in ways that dilute shareholder focus.

Another View on Hess Midstream’s Valuation

While the most popular Hess Midstream narrative pegs fair value around $36.83 and labels the stock as roughly 10% overvalued, the SWS DCF model points in the other direction. In that view, Hess Midstream at $40.53 trades at a steep discount to an estimated future cash flow value of $89.61. Which lens do you trust more when cash flows and sentiment do not line up?

Next Steps

This mix of optimism and caution around Hess Midstream highlights how split sentiment can be. Act while the details are fresh, and weigh the upside against the concerns by reviewing the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Hess Midstream?

If Hess Midstream has sharpened your focus on quality infrastructure, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to spot other opportunities that might fit your goals.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.