• In June 2026, Joby Aviation, Inc. and Toyota Motor Corporation announced the launch of a joint venture to begin the first phase of their manufacturing alliance, combining Joby’s electric aviation expertise with Toyota’s production systems to lay the groundwork for commercial eVTOL aircraft production.
• This move gives Joby access to Toyota’s large-scale manufacturing know-how, which could be important for improving productivity, quality and cost as air mobility scales.
• Next, we’ll examine how this new Toyota-backed manufacturing joint venture could reshape Joby’s investment narrative around scaling eVTOL production.

The future of work is here. Discover the 32 top robotics and automation stocks leading the charge in AI-driven automation and industrial transformation.

Joby Aviation Investment Narrative Recap

To own Joby today, you have to believe eVTOL can move from prototypes and pilot routes to scaled, profitable aircraft production. The new Toyota joint venture directly targets that manufacturing challenge, potentially reinforcing the main near term catalyst of progressing through FAA certification and preparing for commercial deliveries. At the same time, Joby’s continued heavy losses and cash burn remain a core risk, and this alliance does not remove the possibility of future dilution or execution setbacks.

Among recent announcements, the December 2025 plan to double U.S. manufacturing capacity to target four aircraft per month by 2027 ties closely to this new Toyota-backed venture. That earlier expansion plan highlighted Joby’s ambition to ramp output, while the 2026 joint venture brings Toyota’s production systems into the picture. Together, they sit at the center of the scaling catalyst, but also heighten concerns about execution risk if demand, certification progress or unit economics do not keep pace.

But while the Toyota joint venture highlights Joby’s progress, investors should still be aware of the risk that certification or ramp timing slips, potentially affecting…

Joby Aviation's narrative projects $611.2 million revenue and $30.0 million earnings by 2029. This requires 98.9% yearly revenue growth and a $987.4 million earnings increase from -$957.4 million today.

Uncover how Joby Aviation's forecasts yield a $11.12 fair value, a 44% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest estimate analysts were already cautious, assuming roughly US$319,000,000 of revenue and only US$20,900,000 of earnings by 2029, so compared with their concerns about execution strain as Joby pursues unprecedented production rates, Toyota’s new role could either ease their fears or sharpen them, depending on how you think this partnership will really play out.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Joby Aviation - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Decide For Yourself

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Joby Aviation research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Joby Aviation research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Joby Aviation's overall financial health at a glance.

Ready For A Different Approach?

Every day counts. These free picks are already gaining attention. See them before the crowd does:

• Capitalize on the AI infrastructure supercycle with our selection of the 52 best 'picks and shovels' of the AI gold rush converting record-breaking demand into massive cash flow.
• Invest in the nuclear renaissance through our list of 89 elite nuclear energy infrastructure plays powering the global AI revolution.
• Outshine the giants: these 16 early-stage AI stocks could fund your retirement.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.