• In March 2026, On Holding AG reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of CHF 743.8 million and full-year 2025 sales of CHF 3.01 billion, alongside lower net income compared to the prior year.
• At the same time, the company issued 2026 guidance calling for at least 23% constant-currency net sales growth, implying reported revenue of at least CHF 3.44 billion and signaling confidence in its ability to extend its recent top-line momentum.
• Next, we’ll examine how this at least 23% constant-currency sales growth guidance could influence On Holding’s investment narrative and outlook.

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On Holding Investment Narrative Recap

To own On Holding, you generally need to believe its premium brand, product innovation, and global expansion can support sustained sales growth while protecting profitability. The latest results show strong revenue but lower net income, so in the near term the key catalyst is whether the company can convert high top line growth into healthier margins. The new 2026 guidance does not materially change that focus, and margin pressure remains the biggest immediate risk.

The most relevant recent announcement is the 2026 guidance for at least 23% constant currency net sales growth, implying reported revenue of at least CHF 3.44 billion. Set against rising investments and lower net income in 2025, this target puts more attention on the risk that heavy spending on expansion and innovation compresses margins if demand or pricing power soften, even if sales keep growing.

Yet investors should also be aware that margin pressure from higher costs and less favorable FX could...

On Holding’s narrative projects CHF5.0 billion revenue and CHF561.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 22.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about CHF425 million from CHF135.9 million today.

Uncover how On Holding's forecasts yield a $58.65 fair value, a 54% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before this update, the most optimistic analysts were assuming revenue could reach about CHF 5.5 billion and earnings around CHF 725 million, a much more optimistic path than the baseline that you may want to compare with the new guidance.

Explore 18 other fair value estimates on On Holding - why the stock might be worth just $41.28!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your On Holding research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free On Holding research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate On Holding's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.