• Recently, Ondas Holdings announced an acceleration of defense contract wins alongside a new investment in FPF Defense, which is developing autonomous counter-drone systems and relocating its headquarters to West Palm Beach to build a broader defense technology hub with Ondas.
• This move deepens Ondas’ exposure to autonomous defense solutions aimed at addressing cost asymmetry in drone defense, aligning closely with its existing focus on private wireless and drone technologies.
• We’ll now examine how the acceleration in defense contracts and FPF Defense investment could reshape Ondas’ broader investment narrative.

Capitalize on the AI infrastructure supercycle with our selection of the 55 best 'picks and shovels' of the AI gold rush converting record-breaking demand into massive cash flow.

Ondas Investment Narrative Recap

To own Ondas, you need to believe in its ability to turn defense focused autonomous systems and private wireless platforms into durable, higher quality revenue, while managing heavy investment and dilution risks. The acceleration in defense contracts and the FPF Defense investment could support the near term OAS contract ramp, but do not remove key risks around volatile margins, high operating costs and a still developing recurring revenue base.

Among recent developments, Ondas’ broad inclusion in multiple Russell indices in June 2026 looks particularly relevant here. Greater index visibility and ownership can amplify the market impact of any progress in defense contracts and counter drone systems, potentially reinforcing Ondas’ role as a focused defense and critical infrastructure player while the company works to improve earnings quality.

Yet, against the excitement around new defense wins, investors should also be aware of the ongoing dilution risk and growing share count that...

Ondas' narrative projects $1.0 billion revenue and $114.4 million earnings by 2029. This requires 119.3% yearly revenue growth and a $19.8 million earnings decrease from $134.2 million today.

Uncover how Ondas' forecasts yield a $20.12 fair value, a 151% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before this news, the most optimistic analysts were modeling revenue of about US$816.3 million and US$77.3 million in earnings, which is far more bullish than consensus. Those projections assumed that programs like Ondas’ counter drone platforms would scale quickly, while the contrasting narrative highlighted how slow adoption or weak follow on contracts could leave that growth and margin story under pressure. Together they show how sharply opinions can differ and why it is worth exploring several viewpoints.

Explore 13 other fair value estimates on Ondas - why the stock might be worth 35% less than the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Ondas research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Ondas research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Ondas' overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Ondas?

Every day counts. These free picks are already gaining attention. See them before the crowd does:

• Find 51 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.
• This technology could replace computers: discover 26 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.
• Invest in the nuclear renaissance through our list of 90 elite nuclear energy infrastructure plays powering the global AI revolution.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.