• In early February 2026, Carrier Global reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing lower revenue and net income, completed a multi-year US$6.77 billion share repurchase program covering 114,888,374 shares, filed a US$3.06 billion shelf registration for 50,074,109 common shares, and highlighted ongoing softness in residential HVAC alongside strength in commercial and data center-related demand.
• Carrier also introduced a generative AI-based “Tell Me More” feature in its Abound platform to help building operators act on predictive maintenance insights more effectively, reinforcing its push into higher-tech, service-oriented climate and energy solutions at a time when residential HVAC demand has been weakening.
• We’ll now examine how Carrier’s shift toward AI-enabled services and strong data center HVAC orders may influence its existing investment narrative.

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Carrier Global Investment Narrative Recap

To own Carrier Global today, you need to believe that its pivot toward higher-tech, service-heavy climate and energy solutions can offset pressure in residential HVAC, where demand remains weak and margins are under strain. The most important near term catalyst is execution in commercial HVAC and data center cooling, while the biggest risk is prolonged softness and destocking in residential. The latest results, with lower revenue and net income, underscore that this residential risk remains very much in play.

The recent rollout of the “Tell Me More” generative AI feature within Carrier’s Abound platform speaks directly to the service and aftermarket catalyst. By helping technicians act faster on predictive maintenance insights, the tool supports Carrier’s push to deepen recurring, higher margin relationships with building customers, which could matter more if residential volumes stay under pressure and commercial and data center demand continue to carry more of the load.

Yet even with strong data center orders, investors should be aware that concentration in a few large projects could...

Carrier Global's narrative projects $26.7 billion revenue and $2.9 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 5.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $1.4 billion from $1.5 billion today.

Uncover how Carrier Global's forecasts yield a $72.18 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts were already assuming only about 3.4% annual revenue growth and an 18.2x PE by 2029, so this weaker quarter may reinforce their concern that heavy reliance on a few large data center customers could keep Carrier’s outlook more fragile than the consensus view suggests.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Carrier Global - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Carrier Global Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Carrier Global research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Carrier Global research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Carrier Global's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.