• In March 2026, MINISO Group Holding Limited issued FY2025 guidance, projecting revenue of about RMB 21,440 million to RMB 21,445 million, operating profit of roughly RMB 3,300 million to RMB 3,305 million, adjusted operating profit near RMB 3,665 million to RMB 3,675 million, and profit for the year of around RMB 1,320 million to RMB 1,330 million.
• The guidance highlights a sharp drop in annual profit even as management attributes strong revenue growth to a richer product lineup, stronger brand recognition, and continued expansion and refinement of sales channels.
• We’ll now examine how MINISO’s strong revenue outlook but much lower profit guidance may reshape the company’s existing investment narrative.

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MINISO Group Holding Investment Narrative Recap

To own MINISO, you need to be comfortable with a store driven, IP heavy retail model where revenue growth is central and margin pressure is the key risk. The new FY2025 guidance reinforces that tension: management is pointing to strong top line growth, but the sharp fall in profit makes cost control and profitability the dominant short term catalyst. The guidance itself materially raises questions around how sustainable MINISO’s current expansion and IP investment model really is.

Against this backdrop, the ongoing share repurchase program, including the March 2026 buybacks under the Rule 10b5-1 plan, becomes more relevant. While the volumes are modest, this capital return sits alongside sharply lower profit guidance and may influence how you think about capital allocation quality, earnings per share trends and the balance between growth investment and shareholder returns as key near term catalysts.

Yet behind the upbeat revenue story, rising selling and labor costs could quietly reshape the earnings profile that investors should be aware of...

MINISO Group Holding's narrative projects CN¥31.7 billion revenue and CN¥4.9 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 19.4% yearly revenue growth and a CN¥2.5 billion earnings increase from CN¥2.4 billion today.

Uncover how MINISO Group Holding's forecasts yield a $26.87 fair value, a 58% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts were already cautious, assuming revenue of about CN¥28.8 billion and earnings near CN¥4.0 billion by 2028, and this new profit guidance could push their more pessimistic view on margin pressure even further, so it is worth comparing these harsher assumptions with more optimistic takes before deciding which story you find more convincing.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on MINISO Group Holding - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your MINISO Group Holding research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free MINISO Group Holding research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MINISO Group Holding's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.