A popular day trader says he is ready to bet heavily on a US recession this year, just as the odds of one have fallen to an all-time low.

Will Meade told his 272,000 followers on X he would “lay big wood” on a recession by year-end, posting it while quote-tweeting a Kalshi update celebrating record-low recession odds.

He thinks the market is pricing the risk too cheaply. With the contract near 14 cents at the time, the bet only needed the true odds to clear roughly 14% to pay off.

The contract has since ticked up, to 16.3%.

The Cracks Meade Is Pointing At

Meade’s case rests on a consumer he says is buckling under debt. Personal income came in flat in April against expectations of a 0.4% rise, even as borrowing costs stay high.

Total auto loan debt has hit a record $1.67 trillion. Subprime auto delinquencies reached a 32-year high earlier this year, with the 60-day rate touching 6.9% in January, per Fitch Ratings.

Credit card balances sit near $1.28 trillion, and the card delinquency rate has climbed to 13.1%, the highest in roughly 16 years. Student loan delinquencies have jumped above 10% as pandemic-era protections expired.

Gas is adding to the squeeze, running around $4.53 a gallon in early May, according to AAA. Mortgage rates near 7% have left the housing market largely frozen.

The squeeze is harder to escape because inflation is not cooperating. PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, ran at 3.3% on the core reading in April, still above the 2% target. Meade doubts the central bank can cut fast enough to rescue a strained consumer. The setup, he argues, rhymes with 2007.

He Is Not The Only Trader Sounding The Alarm

Michael Burry told his Substack readers this month that the market had “jumped the shark,” comparing the AI rally to the final months of the 1999-2000 bubble.

Forecaster Gary Shilling, who called the 1969-70 downturn, says a recession is now “almost inevitable.”

He points to a frozen housing market and a slump in business spending, noting that capital expenditures grew just 3.9% by late 2025 against a pandemic-era peak near 24%.

Why The Order Book Disagrees

S&P Global Ratings projects 2.2% US growth in 2026, arguing the country’s status as a net energy exporter now cushions the blow from oil shocks. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs both see continued expansion, with Morgan Stanley calling the economy resilient despite restrictive policy.

Their bull case leans on the AI capital expenditure wave, a structural tailwind they say can offset the consumer debt fatigue Meade is pointing at.

For now, the order book is betting the AI boom outruns the strained consumer.

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