• Recently, ONE Gas, Inc. announced an US$800 million capital investment program for 2026 aimed at supporting 7%–9% average annual rate base growth through 2030, alongside plans to release its first quarter 2026 results and host an investor call in early May.
• This combination of a large, forward-looking investment plan and management’s long-term growth targets highlights how ONE Gas is positioning its regulated gas network for expansion while managing emerging supply and cost pressures in the U.S. natural gas market.
• Next, we examine how ONE Gas’s US$800 million 2026 investment plan and long-term growth targets affect its existing investment narrative.

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ONE Gas Investment Narrative Recap

To own ONE Gas, you need to be comfortable with a regulated utility that leans on steady rate base expansion and ongoing capital spending to support earnings, while accepting that regulatory and cost pressures can squeeze returns. The new US$800 million 2026 capex plan reinforces this long-term, infrastructure-first story, but it does not materially change the near term catalyst, which remains regulatory approval and timely cost recovery, or the key risk from tightening domestic gas supply and higher input costs.

The most relevant recent development here is ONE Gas’s target for 7% to 9% average annual rate base growth and 5% to 7% adjusted EPS growth from 2026 to 2030, which underpins the investment case for continued capital deployment. That objective ties directly to the US$800 million 2026 program and keeps the spotlight on how regulators respond to higher spending needs, given that sustained capex without matching rate relief could pressure free cash flow and net margins.

Yet behind this long term growth ambition, investors should be aware of the risk that rising system investment could outpace future regulatory cost recovery and ...

ONE Gas' narrative projects $2.5 billion revenue and $347.6 million earnings by 2029. This requires 1.2% yearly revenue growth and about an $83 million earnings increase from $264.2 million today.

Uncover how ONE Gas' forecasts yield a $90.14 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

One member of the Simply Wall St Community currently pegs fair value for ONE Gas at about US$72.60, underscoring how individual estimates can differ from market pricing. Against this backdrop, the planned US$800 million 2026 capex program and dependence on constructive regulatory outcomes give you a concrete lens for comparing those community views with the company’s long term earnings and rate base ambitions.

Explore another fair value estimate on ONE Gas - why the stock might be worth as much as $72.60!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your ONE Gas research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free ONE Gas research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate ONE Gas' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.