• In recent weeks, StoneCo Ltd. has seen increased attention as analysts raised earnings estimates and highlighted its discounted valuation against industry metrics.
• This shift in sentiment, anchored by expectations of stronger profitability and revenue growth ahead of the upcoming earnings release, is reframing how investors assess StoneCo’s prospects.
• Next, we’ll examine how this wave of upward earnings revisions could reshape StoneCo’s existing investment narrative and risk-reward profile.

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StoneCo Investment Narrative Recap

To own StoneCo today, you need to believe its Brazilian MSMB payments and financial services franchise can stay profitable and resilient even as TPV growth cools and competition stays intense. The latest wave of upward earnings revisions and “value” labels may support the near term catalyst around the upcoming earnings release, but they do not remove the key risk that slower transaction growth and rising credit costs could pressure margins and earnings.

The most relevant recent development is the series of analyst estimate upgrades that now underpin a Zacks Rank #2 and “A” Value grade, with StoneCo trading on valuation multiples below industry averages. This reinforces the current earnings momentum story and supports the idea that the next few quarters of results are a key catalyst, especially after Q1 2026’s strong BRL 3,578.02 million revenue and sharply higher net income.

Yet while sentiment has turned more positive, you should be aware that rising provisions and slowing TPV could still...

StoneCo's narrative projects R$17.4 billion revenue and R$5.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 8.2% yearly revenue growth and about a R$6.3 billion earnings increase from R$-1.3 billion today.

Uncover how StoneCo's forecasts yield a $20.29 fair value, a 85% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming revenue of about R$19.0 billion and earnings of roughly R$5.4 billion by 2029, which is far more upbeat than the baseline narrative focused on slower growth and margin pressure from weaker MSMB activity and PIX disruption. The latest earnings revisions and valuation talk might reinforce that optimistic view or challenge it, and it is worth weighing both interpretations side by side.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on StoneCo - why the stock might be worth 14% less than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your StoneCo research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free StoneCo research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate StoneCo's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.