Will US Acquire Greenland In 2026? Here's What The Prediction Market Thinks
President Donald Trump has been very vocal about Greenland and how important it is for the U.S. to take control over the island. He has called the Arctic island "imperative" for national and world security.
Trump has also spoken about gaining sovereignty over land in Greenland that hosts U.S. bases, a suggestion that was rejected by Greenland's government.
While there has been no major development on the Greenland issue recently, bettors on prediction markets are betting on whether the U.S. will acquire the autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark.
Will The US Acquire Part Of Greenland?
Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $7.9 million has been bet on the contract "Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?"
According to bettors, there is a 20% probability that the U.S. acquires a part of Greenland in 2026, up by 2%. The market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. is able to acquire any land territory that is part of Greenland by Dec. 31, 2026.
The majority of bettors, 81%, think that the U.S. will not acquire any part of Greenland in 2026.
Greenland Rejects Trump's Bid
Naaja Nathanielsen, Greenland’s minister of industry, energy, law enforcement and equality, said that any proposal involving U.S. ownership of Greenland's territory crosses a boundary.
“Giving up sovereignty is not on the table for now,” Nathanielsen told USA Today in January.
Trump, during his Davos speech, had said that “No nation or group of nations is in a position to secure Greenland other than the United States.”
Greenland’s leaders rejected Trump’s suggestion, with Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen saying, “We don’t want to be Americans, we don’t want to be Danes, we want to be Greenlanders.”
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock/ Joshua Sukoff
