XP stock reacts to Q1 earnings, buyback, and dividend announcements

XP (XP) is back in focus after Q1 2026 results, with client assets at R$2.1t, a new R$1b share buyback, R$500m in dividends, and a CFO transition drawing investor attention.

While the Q1 2026 update and capital return plans have pushed the share price up 4.75% over the past day, that sits against a 30 day share price return down 15.63% and a 1 year total shareholder return down 18.84%. This points to short term momentum but a weaker longer run record.

If this earnings reaction has you thinking about where else capital could work, it may be worth scanning 20 top founder-led companies as a way to surface fresh ideas beyond XP.

With XP trading at $15.65, alongside an intrinsic value estimate at a discount of 37.53% and a value score of 6, you have to ask: is this a mispriced compounder, or is the market already baking in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 34.7% Undervalued

XP's most followed narrative pegs fair value at $23.97, which sits well above the last close at $15.65 and frames the current discount.

The ongoing expansion of Brazil's middle class and gradual increase in personal savings rates are set to grow XP's addressable market, supporting long-term AUM and retail client growth, which should bolster revenue and earnings power as the company penetrates deeper into emerging segments.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Curious what earnings, revenue, and margin path could justify that gap to fair value? The narrative leans on specific growth and profitability targets, plus a future valuation multiple that is well below many peers yet still higher than today. The full story ties those moving parts together into a single fair value number.

Result: Fair Value of $23.97 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upside story depends on XP holding its fee rates and keeping costs in check, while tougher competition and regulatory shifts could put pressure on both.

Next Steps

Given that the core story here is mixed, with both risks and optimism in play, it makes sense to look at the underlying factors yourself. To see what investors are highlighting on the upside, review the 5 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.