It's shaping up to be a tough period for XPeng Inc. (NYSE:XPEV), which a week ago released some disappointing second-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at CN¥20b, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of CN¥1.40 some 155% larger than what the analysts had predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from XPeng's 31 analysts is for revenues of CN¥86.8b in 2026. This would reflect a notable 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are supposed to see a sharp uptick, reaching CN¥3.59. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥92.3b and losses of CN¥3.45 per share in 2026. So it's pretty clear consensus is more negative on XPeng after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts trimmed their revenue estimates, they also administered a pronounced increase to per-share loss expectations.

The average price target fell 7.6% to US$20.44, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for XPeng's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values XPeng at US$27.02 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$12.01. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting XPeng is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of XPeng'shistorical trends, as the 33% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 32% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 14% per year. So although XPeng is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded XPeng's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of XPeng's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on XPeng. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for XPeng going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the XPeng Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.