First published: 16-Oct-2025 18:05:32

Fadi Qanso

gold

Gold experienced an exceptional upward trend during the first half of October, taking the yellow metal to successive record highs, following an exceptional month in September.

Gold prices jumped to record highs above $3,900 per ounce on Monday, October 6, driven by expectations of further US interest rate cuts, as investors turned to the precious metal as a safe haven amid rising global economic and political uncertainty.

Investors faced a complex landscape in which the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path intertwined with global geopolitical tensions, while gold reaffirmed its traditional role as a reliable store of value.

Continuing this momentum, gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time on Tuesday, October 7, as investors sought to hedge against rising geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and economic uncertainty, while both central banks and individual investors ramped up gold purchases .

Accordingly, gold recorded its eighth consecutive week of gains during the week ending October 10, after US President Donald Trump reiterated his warning of imposing new tariffs on China, sparking a new wave of buying .

Meanwhile, silver prices also benefited from the same factors that supported gold's rise, fueled by concerns about supply shortages and increased industrial demand. As a result, gold prices reached $4,036 per ounce on October 10, posting a weekly gain of 3.2%.

Gold continued to shine this week, ending on October 17, approaching the $4,250 per ounce mark on October 16. Gold is expected to continue rising, supported by the expected interest rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, not to mention rising political and trade tensions.

Silver prices continued to rise, surpassing $52 per ounce on October 15. Silver's importance as an investment metal has grown over time, as its combination of ease of trading and affordability makes it an attractive option for anyone seeking to diversify their financial portfolio .

Therefore, it is clear that metal prices will continue their upward trajectory and break new record levels in the coming period, according to expectations.

Stock exchanges

Wall Street started last week, ending October 10, on a positive note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes hitting record highs on Monday, October 6, supported by optimism about increased mergers and acquisitions activity, despite the US government shutdown entering its sixth day.

This optimism continued until the middle of last week, but stocks declined on Tuesday, October 7 , in the absence of official economic data, prompting investors to rely on alternative indicators and statements from Federal Reserve officials to gauge the state of the economy and monetary policy.

Midway through last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs again, while the Dow Jones remained largely unchanged, as investors focused on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting for clues about the future path of interest rates .

However, US stocks declined at the end of last week, specifically on October 9 and 10, as momentum stalled after previous gains and concerns over trade tensions returned .

Shares of tech giants fell sharply on Friday, October 10, wiping out approximately $770 billion in market value. Shares of Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla each fell by about 5%, pushing the Nasdaq index down 3.6% on Friday, October 10, its worst performance since last April .

Thus, Wall Street ended the week in negative territory, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 2.7%, the S&P 500 falling 2.4%, and the Nasdaq falling 2.5% during the week ending October 10.

This weak performance in US stock markets continued during the current week, which ends on October 17, as the major indices remained in the red with relatively weak performance. This was particularly true in light of Trump's statements and Beijing's restrictions, which imposed sanctions on five US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean, one of South Korea's largest shipbuilders. Hanwha Ocean recently acquired a Philadelphia shipyard to boost its presence in the US market, which exacerbated investor anxiety in general, a trend that is expected to continue in the near term.

In contrast, European stock markets saw similar performance to those in the US, with major European equity indices in red for the week ending October 10, with the French CAC 40 index falling 2.0% and the FTSE 100 index falling 0.7%. This continued weak performance for the current week, which ends October 17.

However, Asian stock markets saw some gains during the week ending October 10, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising 5.1% and the Shanghai Composite up 0.4%, before re-entering the negative territory this week.

Arab markets

Arab stock markets generally remained in green territory during the week ending October 10, albeit at a relatively moderate pace. The S&P Arab Composite Index posted a weekly gain of 0.8%, amid rising price indices across most Arab stock exchanges.

This was driven by easing geopolitical concerns amid anticipation of the announcement of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, signed on October 13. This restored some confidence to regional and international investors alike, and contributed somewhat to the decline in levels of anxiety that had been pressuring liquidity and limiting risk appetite.

The market capitalization of Arab stock markets rose 0.6% to $4.34 billion during the week ending October 10. Trading value also rose 4.3% to $22.5 billion, while trading volume rose 4.1% to 20.7 billion shares.

However, stagnation quickly returned to dominate Arab stock markets' performance during the current week, which ends on October 17, with no significant changes in Arab stock market price indices, but varying performances.

Investors remain cautious, awaiting clarity on the political agreement's trajectory on the ground and the sustainability of the geopolitical de-escalation. Confidence remains contingent on the truce becoming a permanent reality that mitigates regional risks and restores momentum to the region's investment and growth cycle .

Therefore, it can be argued that the current state of stagnation reflects a combination of wait-and-see, as markets await clearer signals regarding the path of US interest rates, the sustainability of regional political calm, and upcoming quarterly corporate results, which will determine whether the previous wave of improvement can continue or whether it was merely a temporary setback.

Bonds

During the week ending October 10, US Treasury yields closed lower, reflecting investor caution amid the ongoing US government shutdown and uncertainty surrounding the pace of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, particularly following Trump's threat to impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods .

Thus, US Treasury yields ended the week with an overall decline, with the two-year note yield falling 6 basis points to 3.51%, while the ten-year note yield fell 9 basis points to 4.04 % . Yields remained stable during the current week, which ends on October 17.

The dollar

The dollar index rose during the week ending October 10, approaching its highest level in two months on Wednesday, October 8, supported by ongoing geopolitical, financial, and economic concerns in Asia and Europe that negatively impacted major currencies, particularly the yen and the euro.

This came amid concerns about increased fiscal spending in Japan and political instability in France. The dollar closed last week higher, with its index closing at 99 , up 1.3%.

However, the dollar retreated again during the current week, which ends on October 17, particularly between October 14 and 15, affected by escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, at a time when market expectations of interest rate cuts this year have strengthened .

These moves came after Washington criticized Beijing for expanding restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, arguing that they threaten global supply chains.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded by stating that US actions against Chinese companies were the reason for imposing these restrictions. Therefore, in light of these developments, pressure on the US dollar index is expected to remain in place for the coming period.

(Prepared by: Fadi Qanso, Assistant Secretary-General and Director of Research at the Arab Stock Exchanges Union, Economic Expert and University Professor, Edited by: Yasmine Saleh, Reviewed before publication by: Shaimaa Hefzy)

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