June 24 (Reuters) - JPMorgan on Wednesday lowered its forecast for Brent crude prices in the second half of 2026, citing weak oil demand and a decline in commercial inventory drawdowns in OECD countries from expected levels.

The bank predicted in a research note that the average price of Brent crude would reach $86 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 in the final quarter, ending 2026 at $78.

• JPMorgan said that the drawdown of commercial inventories in OECD countries came in below expectations, while weak demand exceeded estimates, meaning a decrease in the pressures driving oil prices upward.

• He stated that oil flows currently stand at around 8.6 million barrels per day, while the average from the beginning of June until now has been 6.3 million barrels per day, which represents a significant increase compared to the levels of April and May.

• The bank noted that private sector operators largely refused to draw on stockpiles, relying almost entirely on government releases from the strategic reserve to keep refineries running.

• In its forecast for the second half of the year, the bank predicted that oil inventories in OPEC countries would continue to decline by about an additional 50 million barrels between April and July.

• He added that in light of the expected oversupply during the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027, a production cut will likely be needed in early 2027 after a period of maximum production in late 2026.