LONDON/SINGAPORE, June 30 (Reuters) - Shell said on Tuesday that disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz due to Iran's war could keep global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade at current levels this year if flows return to normal over the next three months, but it predicted a resumption of growth in 2027 and a sharp rise in demand by 2050.

The severe disruption to gas tanker traffic through this vital waterway has halted approximately 20 percent of global monthly supplies since the conflict began. Shell, one of the world's largest energy companies, had anticipated growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade during 2026. This trade was valued at 422 million tons in 2025.

However, Shell predicts in its annual forecast that global demand for liquefied natural gas will rise by about 65 percent by 2050, driven largely by the needs of Asia, as countries seek lower-emission alternatives to coal, along with increased energy demand from data centers.

Shell predicted that global demand would approach 700 million tons per year by that time.

“The conflict has had a system-wide shock, with disruptions spreading to various sectors of the economy, but the LNG industry has proven its resilience and ability to adapt to changing market conditions,” said Cedric Kremers, Shell’s head of integrated gas, in the report.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has disrupted global liquefied natural gas market forecasts, driving up prices, damaging export facilities in Qatar, and delaying new supplies, raising doubts about demand, particularly from price-sensitive Asian buyers.

Analysts expect that higher prices will curb demand in South Asia, with buyers turning to alternatives to liquefied natural gas or returning to coal and domestic gas.

Around 180 million tons per year of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are expected to enter the market by 2030, improving gas availability and affordability and opening the door to demand in new markets.

Shell says this growth comes at a time when forecasts predict a decline in domestic gas production in emerging Asian countries despite rising demand, meaning the region will need about 300 million tons per year of liquefied natural gas to meet total demand by 2050.