From Sarubia Ganguly and Devyani Sathayan

Bengaluru, June 6 (Reuters Sports Service) - A Reuters poll of economists predicted that France would win the World Cup at the expense of Spain, while Brazil, the record holder with five titles, would likely be the biggest loser, with participants acknowledging that predicting football results is more difficult than predicting inflation rates.

Around 160 economists from around the world participated in this survey, which is conducted every four years and provides a welcome respite from macroeconomic analysis amid wars, energy shocks, and renewed debate over whether inflation is temporary or permanent.

The participants' task this time is to predict the results of the largest edition in the history of the World Cup, which includes 48 teams and is held across 104 matches in the United States, Canada and Mexico, in the first edition to be hosted by three countries.

France received 35 percent of the votes in the poll conducted between May 11 and June 5, compared to 31 percent for Spain, largely in line with the trends in the betting markets, which could bring Europe back to the forefront of world football.

If this prediction comes true, Didier Deschamps will become the first coach since Italian Vittorio Pozzo in 1938 to win the title twice, and the first to achieve this after winning it as a player in 1998.

Argentina, the defending champion and world number one, came in the top five in the survey, along with Portugal and England.

“After the disappointment of the 2022 final, France look well-prepared to achieve a better result this time,” said Cathal Kennedy, chief economist at RBC in London, adding that “the team’s composition combines the experience of the players from the last final who are at the peak of their performance, along with the emergence of outstanding new elements.”

Kylian Mbappe, who had a fantastic season with Real Madrid, presented himself as the poll choice to win both the Player of the Tournament and Top Scorer awards.

Mbappe narrowly edged out England captain Harry Kane, who won the European Golden Boot after his best scoring season, having scored 61 goals for Bayern Munich.

A new achievement seems within reach for both of them.

Mbappe and Kane, who have 12 and eight World Cup goals respectively, are among the top contenders to break the historic record of German Miroslav Klose (16 goals), along with Lionel Messi, who has scored 13 goals.

* Basic intuition

Two participants, one Mexico, and one Morocco — teams whose victory would have been a fairytale World Cup — were among the eight percent who said loyalty guided their choices, while about 73 percent said they relied on their intuition.

Shannon Bould, chief economist at the Johannesburg Bureau of Economic Research, joked, "As with any model, the forecasts were adjusted with a large dose of intuition!"

About 20 percent of participants relied on data and models in their predictions.

Claudio Goffender of RMB said, "Macroeconomic experts came together and came up with a common vision."

But the outlook towards Brazil appeared bleak in the survey.

Even with Carlo Ancelotti taking over as coach of their national team, confidence levels did not rise, as about a third of the participants considered them — after their quarter-final exit against Croatia in 2022 — the most prominent football power likely to deliver a disappointing performance, followed by England and then Germany.

In contrast, Norway, led by Manchester City striker Erling Haaland, could provide an element of excitement, as 21 percent chose them as the most likely team to cause an upset despite their slim chances, ahead of Japan (15 percent).

The race was also open in terms of the emergence of new stars, as the votes were distributed among 46 names, but the young Spanish striker, Amine Jamal (18 years old), topped the list.

Frenchman Mike Maignan, Argentinian Emiliano Martinez and Spaniard Unai Simon also emerged as leading contenders for the Golden Glove award for best goalkeeper in the tournament.

*An expensive cup

Outside the green rectangle, organizers face a complex logistical test as millions of fans prepare to flock to North America, at a time when cost has become a clear concern.

The high prices of tickets, accommodation, and travel between cities have raised concerns that this edition could be the most expensive in the history of the fans.

Thus, the period away from inflation appears to be short.

More than 60 percent of participants believe that predicting inflation rates in 2026 is still easier than predicting the world champion — although recent years have lowered the bar for this challenge.

Ozan Can Turkmen of Turkey's Şeker Bank said, "We know when the World Cup will end, but we don't know when the energy supply crisis will end."