Gulf stock markets decline as oil prices fall and expectations of a US interest rate hike grow.

DAR ALARKAN
SNB
MASAR
Tadawul All Shares Index

DAR ALARKAN

4300.SA

0.00

SNB

1180.SA

0.00

MASAR

4325.SA

0.00

Tadawul All Shares Index

TASI.SA

0.00

From Muhammad Munther Hussein

- Most Gulf stock markets closed lower on Thursday, pressured by falling oil prices and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this year.

Oil prices, a key driver of Gulf markets, continued to fall, approaching levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran war, as expectations of increased supply from the Middle East outweighed concerns about demand.

The preliminary agreement reached last week to end the US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28, has allowed for the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

High inflation in the United States, fueled by the Iran war, and the Federal Reserve's inclination toward tightening monetary policy have contributed to increased expectations of interest rate hikes. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders anticipate three US rate increases this year, estimating the probability of a September hike at approximately 67 percent.

US monetary policy has a significant impact on Gulf stock exchanges, as most of the region's currencies are pegged to the dollar.

Dubai's main stock index fell 1.4 percent, with almost all its constituent stocks declining. Leading real estate developer Emaar Properties saw its shares drop 2.9 percent, while Emirates NBD, Dubai's largest bank, lost 1.3 percent.

Six executives and analysts told Reuters that while the tentative preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran helped ease tensions, restoring business confidence in Dubai will take time and could require further incentives.

Abu Dhabi's main index fell for the third consecutive session, closing down 1.2 percent, dragged down by losses in the real estate and technology sectors. Aldar Properties shares dropped 3.9 percent, and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank shares declined 2.4 percent.

The Saudi stock market's main index fell 0.7 percent, pressured by real estate stocks which led the decline. Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development shares dropped 5.1 percent, and shares of Umm Al Qura Development and Construction Company, also known as Masar, fell 3.5 percent.

Masar announced on Wednesday that its flagship project, "Masar Destination," in Mecca has been approved as an area where non-Saudis are permitted to own property, following approval from the Saudi Cabinet. This decision comes as the Saudi Real Estate Authority has begun accepting property ownership applications from foreigners, as part of the Kingdom's broader efforts to attract international investment.

Qatar's main stock index continued its decline for the sixth consecutive session, falling 0.4 percent, with most stocks declining. Qatar National Bank, the largest bank in the Gulf, lost 1.2 percent. Qatar Industries fell 1 percent.

The index in Kuwait fell 0.2 percent to 9,126 points. The index in Oman lost 0.4 percent to 7,317 points.

The index in Bahrain rose 0.3 percent to 2042.

Joseph Daherieh, managing director at Tech Mill, said, "While lower oil prices may pose a challenge, easing geopolitical tensions support increased risk appetite and activity in non-oil sectors, and rising crude oil exports could support the energy sector."

Outside the Gulf region, Egypt's benchmark index fell for the fourth consecutive session, closing down 0.5 percent as most stocks declined. Orascom Construction shares plunged 7 percent, and Fawry, a banking technology and electronic payments company, saw its shares drop 1.6 percent.