3 Health Insurance Stocks to Play On the Medicare Hike
Humana Inc. HUM | 0.00 | |
Oscar Health OSCR | 0.00 | |
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH | 0.00 |
Medicare’s April 6 announcement that insurer payment rates are projected to rise by 2.48%, or over $13 billion, in 2027 looks like a bonanza for health insurers.
Add to that risk adjustment changes, and insurers are looking at roughly a 5% total payment boost, a meaningful upside surprise for downbeat industry investors.
The news gave healthcare stocks a much-needed shot in the arm, with the benchmark S&P 500 Health Care Index rising 2% in the immediate aftermath of the price hike, even as the index is down 3.37% year-to-date, suggesting some distress in the healthcare sector.
Experts consider this to be only the beginning of a rally.
These three healthcare stocks are best positioned to profit from this revenue hike.
“This expected increase includes consideration of the various elements that impact MA payments, such as growth rates of underlying costs, 2026 Star Ratings for 2027 quality bonus payments, and risk adjustment updates,” Medicare noted in a statement.
The Medicare pricing upgrade comes at a time when the broader healthcare sector has lagged other major indexes over the past few years. The U.S. healthcare market, which comprises 10% of the S&P 500’s total value, has trailed the S&P 500 in the past three years, finishing down 0.3% in 2023; 0.9% in 2024, and up 12.5% in 2025.
That was then, and this is now, as the Medicare pricing uptick should prove a long-term boon for U.S. healthcare insurers, with a more favorable impact on some stocks than others. Here’s a capsule look at three sector stocks that should breeze through any portfolio checkup, with ample sustainability beyond just 2026.
United Health Group
Trading at $306 per share, but down-7.2% year-to-date, United Health (NYSE:UNH) saw its share price rise by 8% on the Medicare payment news. But there’s abundant evidence to suggest that UNH has plenty of runway even after the headlines fade away.
For starters, the Medicare upgrade directly reflects UnitedHealth’s outsized exposure to Medicare Advantage and its ability to translate higher reimbursement rates into earnings growth, particularly given its status as the largest Medicare Advantage provider in the country.
Analysts are bullish on ENH shares, noting UnitedHealth is often viewed as the “bellwether” for the U.S. managed care market, and this policy shift reinforces its earnings visibility heading into 2027. The upward-spiking rate environment also reduces stress from prior industry concerns around market utilization spikes and reimbursement compression.
On April 6, Bernstein’s Lance Wilkes raised its price target on UnitedHealth Group to $405, pointing to a more robust Medicare Advantage rate and stronger margin visibility. That translates into a healthy 32% share price upgrade on UNH stock. Earlier in April, Goldman Sachs analyst Scott Fidel upped his UNH price target to $400 per share, indicating a 30% boost to UNH’s share price.
Trading Oil, Rates, Headlines with a Fast Options Strategy
Oil is elevated, rate expectations are shifting, and stocks are reacting immediately to new information. That combination is driving fast, back-and-forth price action across indexes and ETFs. Matt Maley is actively trading this by building positions ahead of moves and adjusting as they unfold, consistently finding winning trades as volatility expands. On April 12, he'll show how to trade this setup while it's still active. See How He's Positioning →
Humana Inc.
There’s a good argument to be made that Humana (NYSE:HUM) is the most direct beneficiary of the new Medicare price payout points. Trading around $199 per-share but down 22% year-to-date, the Louisville, Ky. health insurance giant specializes in Medicare benefits, marketed to individuals or directly through group Medicare accounts.
In fact, over 50% of its annual revenue is linked to Medicare Advantage alone. Given a new, more favorable reimbursement structure, Humana should leverage stronger cost predictability, better margins, and lower risk associated with insurance policy changes.
Like United Health, HUM shares rose 8% following the Medicare pricing news. The insurer doesn’t have the luxury of a massive services business like UNH, but it may not need to, with extra cash flowing in from Uncle Sam starting in 2027. The company also benefits from significant improvements in Medicare Advantage margins through more favorable re-contracting deals.
“The company anticipates robust revenue growth across its Specialty, Direct-to-Consumer (DTC), Direct-to-Employer (DTE), and Home delivery segments, contributing to enhanced earnings as management expects improvements in margins driven by cost moderation and value-based care initiatives,” Benzinga analysis notes. “Additionally, the CenterWell division is experiencing strong revenue growth, particularly in pharmacy performance, while membership growth in Group MA is projected to reach 150,000, bolstered by high retention rates and the acquisition of new clients.”
Oppenheimer analyst Michael Wiederhorn is on board with the stock, with a $250 price target, representing a 26% share price upside.
Oscar Health
With a $4.35 billion market cap, New York City-based Oscar Health (NYSE:OSCR) is an industry small fry (UNH, for example, has a $277 billion market cap), but it hits hard for a bantamweight.
Trading at $14 per-share and trading flat year-to-date, Oscar earned a big boost from the Medicare pricing announcement, seeing its share price skyrocket 20.2% this week. Even with the uptick, there’s plenty of beef left on this bone. Wall Street pros largely view the stock favorably, noting its accelerated share growth and soaring estimated value at 10 times its 2026 earnings guidance.
Company insiders back the stock, too. On April 6, SEC Form 4 filings showed OSCR CEO Mark Bertolini snapping up 1 million shares of the company’s stock at $ 11.90 per share. That’s a bold move that should gain the trust of any fence-sitting investors, who may come along for the ride as topline company officials likely view the stock as undervalued.
Yes, Oscar shares diminished due to the end of the Affordable Care Act tax subsidies, with no coherent agreement in place to renew them. Given Oscar Health’s focused concentration on Obamacare consumers, that’s a problem, albeit likely a short-term one, as cooler legislative heads will eventually prevail and a revised ACA tax subsidy will be back in place a year from now.
A case in point: Even with the ACA subsidy mess, OSCR was able to boost its insurance enrollment roles from two million in 2025 to 3.4 million in 2026. That should lead to about $19 billion in revenue this year, with operating income expected to reach $450 million, a figure that should expand over time.
Analysts see OSCR shares driving upward for the rest of 2026. A consensus call from three sector analysts tracked by Benzinga has shares landing at $17.3%, or a 20.4% share price upside.
