Recent share performance puts Blackstone in focus

Blackstone (BX) has drawn attention after its stock declined about 10% over the past month and roughly 5% over the past 3 months, placing recent performance in the context of its longer term track record.

With the share price at $110.28, Blackstone’s recent loss of momentum, including a 1-day share price return of down 4.03% and year to date share price return of down 30.55%, contrasts with a 3-year total shareholder return of 38.62%. As a result, recent weakness sits against a still positive longer term record.

If you are weighing up Blackstone alongside other opportunities in alternative asset management and beyond, it can be helpful to scan a broader field of companies with resilient balance sheets and recurring fee income profiles using the 20 top founder-led companies

So with Blackstone trading at $110.28, recent share price weakness and an indicated 30.26% discount to the average analyst price target raise the key question: is this a genuine opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 32% Undervalued

Blackstone’s most followed valuation narrative points to a fair value of $162.26 per share, well above the last close at $110.28, which puts the recent pullback in a very different light for anyone focused on long term cash flows.

The firm is well-positioned to benefit from market dislocation with $177 billion of dry powder available for opportunistic investments, potentially increasing future earnings as capital is deployed in undervalued assets.
Blackstone's strategic alliance with Wellington and Vanguard aims to develop integrated public-private investment solutions, potentially expanding revenue channels by tapping into the private wealth market.

Want to see how this narrative gets from today’s earnings to that higher fair value? The key is the mix of projected growth, margins and payout potential, and how those feed into the discount rate and future multiple assumptions that sit behind the $162.26 figure.

Result: Fair Value of $162.26 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on retail flows holding up. BCRED redemption and fee pressure, alongside wider economic and trade uncertainties, could easily challenge that narrative.

Next Steps

Given the mix of concerns and optimism running through this discussion, it makes sense to check the full picture for yourself and not wait around. You can start with the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Blackstone is on your radar, do not stop there. A few minutes spent scanning focused stock lists today could shape the opportunities you act on next.

• Target potential mispricings by reviewing companies that screen as attractively valued with the 47 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Prioritise stability by checking companies that appear in the 63 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
• Hunt for underfollowed opportunities by scanning the screener containing 22 high quality undiscovered gems.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.