IonQ (IONQ) is back in focus after agreeing with Florida LambdaRail to deploy quantum key distribution across a nearly 100 mile corridor, alongside work in DARPA’s HARQ program on next generation quantum networks.

Despite a 1 day share price return of negative 1.73% and a 7 day share price return of negative 6.91%, IonQ’s recent Florida LambdaRail and DARPA HARQ updates sit alongside a 56.60% 30 day share price return and very large multi year total shareholder returns. This suggests long term momentum has remained strong even as shorter term sentiment has cooled.

If you are looking beyond IonQ to see what else is happening around quantum networking and security, this is a good moment to scan 26 quantum computing stocks

With IonQ posting very large multi year returns, a recent 60% 30 day surge and revenue of US$130.0m against a US$16.1b market cap, you have to ask: is there still an opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 49.3% Undervalued

With IonQ last closing at $43.08 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of $85.00, the gap between price and story is wide and very clear.

The market is upside down. IONQ is the clear winner of this race. Rigetti failed DARPA phase A. D Wave is a science expirement. Is the market asleep?

The core thesis hangs on rapid revenue expansion, a step change in profitability expectations and a valuation framework that treats IonQ as a category leader. Curious which assumptions really carry this $85.00 fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $85.00 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on aggressive revenue growth and margin assumptions. As a result, any slowdown in demand or delays in commercial deployments could quickly challenge the $85.00 fair value story.

Next Steps

With sentiment split between strong past returns, ambitious growth assumptions and concern about execution risk, this is a moment to act quickly, review the underlying data, and decide where you stand by weighing the 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.