NextDecade (NEXT) shares were in focus after the company reported a wider first quarter 2026 net loss of US$136.41 million, along with detailed progress updates on its Rio Grande LNG project and future expansion plans.

Despite the wider quarterly loss, investors have focused on construction progress and early LNG sales, with the share price up 10.44% over 7 days and a 48.02% 90 day share price return, while the 5 year total shareholder return is very large.

If this kind of project driven story interests you, it can be useful to see what other energy related names are doing through 34 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With the share price already up strongly over the past 3 months and the last close sitting below the average analyst price target, the key question now is whether this LNG builder still offers an opportunity for investors or if the market has already priced in the future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.5% Undervalued

With NextDecade last closing at $7.83 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of $8.75, the gap comes down to whether the Rio Grande LNG build out and long term contracts play out as expected.

Early cargo sales of over 175 trillion BTUs at expected margins of more than US$3 per MMBtu and the company’s projection that approximately 3,800 TBtus of early LNG volumes could generate US$1.2b to US$2b of distributable cash flow provide a defined path to use near term cash inflows to reduce term loans and corporate level leverage, which can support future net income.

Want to see what kind of revenue build out and margin profile need to sit behind that cash flow path and valuation gap? The narrative leans on fast ramping sales, a shift from losses to sizeable earnings, and a future profit multiple that sits well below the broader US Oil and Gas group. The full story is in how those moving parts are stitched together.

Result: Fair Value of $8.75 (UNDERVALUED)

However, you also need to weigh the risk that project delays, cost overruns, and heavy debt costs could squeeze cash flow and delay those expected flips.

Another Way To Look At It

The fair value narrative leans on future earnings, but the current P/B ratio of 21.8x stands out against a US Oil and Gas industry average of 1.7x and a peer average of 2x. That kind of gap points to meaningful valuation risk if expectations do not play out as hoped.

For a project heavy name like this, it can help to see how the numbers stack up using a simple ratio checklist, not just long term cash flow stories. This can help you test whether you are comfortable with that premium or want to compare with other options. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With mixed signals on valuation and sentiment across the story so far, it makes sense to move quickly and test the assumptions against your own expectations by reviewing the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If this LNG story has your attention, do not stop here. Broaden your opportunity set by scanning other names that might better fit your goals.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.