Airbnb (ABNB) has wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$2.8b and basic EPS of US$0.56, capping a year where trailing twelve month revenue reached US$12.2b and EPS came in at US$4.10. Over the past few quarters, revenue has moved from US$2.5b in Q4 2024 to US$4.1b in Q3 2025 before landing at US$2.8b in Q4 2025. Over the same stretch, quarterly EPS shifted from US$0.74 to US$2.25 and then to US$0.56, giving investors a clearer view of how profitability tracks Airbnb’s seasonally weighted booking cycle. With a trailing net margin of 20.5%, down from 23.9% a year earlier, the focus now turns to whether these margins can support the growth investors are monitoring.

See our full analysis for Airbnb.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to compare these results with the widely held narratives around Airbnb’s growth, profitability, and risk profile to see which views are supported by the data and which might need to be reconsidered.

Margins Ease Back From 23.9% To 20.5%

• Over the last 12 months, Airbnb posted a net profit of US$2.5b on US$12.2b of revenue, which works out to a 20.5% net margin compared with 23.9% a year earlier.
• What bulls like about the story is that analysts in the optimistic camp expect margins to move up again over time. The current 20.5% level gives you a simple check on that:
  • Those bullish assumptions talk about margins reaching around the mid 20s in a few years, so today’s 20.5% is the starting point you can compare against that view.
  • The fact that margin is currently lower than 23.9% a year ago means any bullish case that leans on margin expansion is asking you to believe in a reversal of this recent margin pressure.

Supporters of the upbeat view argue that Airbnb’s scale and new products could justify those higher margins over time, so if you want to see how that argument is built out in full, 🐂 Airbnb Bull Case

EPS Swings With Seasonality And Growth Hopes

• Across FY 2025, basic EPS moved from US$0.25 in Q1 to US$2.25 in Q3 and then US$0.56 in Q4, while trailing 12 month EPS for Q4 stood at US$4.10.
• Analysts’ consensus view points to earnings growth of about 14% a year from here, yet the last 12 months included a step down from prior profit trends:
  • Five year earnings growth has averaged 52.3% a year, so the current US$4.10 trailing EPS and the softer margin show a very different pace than that multi year run rate.
  • The consensus growth and margin expectations are built on this US$4.10 EPS base, so if future EPS does not track that roughly 14% path, it could put that consensus view under pressure.

Valuation Signals Mixed Messages At US$140

• At a share price of US$140.46, Airbnb trades on a trailing P/E of 33.3x, above both the 30.4x peer average and the 20.2x US hospitality industry, while the provided DCF fair value estimate sits higher at US$257.41.
• Bears focus on the richer P/E and slower forecast growth, while the DCF fair value and long term track record point in the opposite direction:
  • On one side, the stock price is about 45.4% below the stated DCF fair value, which is often used to support arguments that the current price might not fully reflect Airbnb’s cash flow potential.
  • On the other side, revenue is expected to grow around 9.4% a year and earnings about 14% a year, which is slower than the referenced US market forecasts, so critics question whether a 33.3x P/E and a consensus analyst target of about US$149.07 leave enough room for disappointment.

Skeptical investors who focus on that combination of a premium P/E, slower forecast growth and margin compression often lean on the more cautious narrative, so if you want to see that case laid out in detail, 🐻 Airbnb Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Airbnb on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

After weighing both bullish and cautious angles, the key question is what you think the data is indicating. Take a closer look now and stress test your own assumptions against the 2 key rewards

See What Else Is Out There

Airbnb is working through margin pressure, a richer 33.3x P/E and slower forecast growth, which together leave less room for earnings or valuation disappointments.

If that mix of premium pricing and softer growth targets makes you cautious, now is a good time to compare it with 51 high quality undervalued stocks and see which stocks better match your expectations for value and execution.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.