Two Key Signals in the AI Compute Power Arms Race

The race for AI computational power is being marked by two significant signals:

1. Long-term Compute Reservation by AI Companies:
Anthropic has continued to secure its future computational resources by signing contracts worth up to $9.1 billion with up to a 20-year term.

2. Explosive Growth in AI Cloud Providers:

CoreWeave(CRWV.US), an AI-focused cloud provider, saw its Q2 revenues double, with backlog orders surpassing $100 billion and new customer commitments exceeding $25 billion at the start of Q3. 

Although these appear to be independent news items, they together form a complete cycle of AI infrastructure expansion:

• AI developers lock in power and compute through long-term contracts.
• Neocloud providers secure financing, purchase chips, and build data centers based on these contracts.

Anthropic: Locking in Compute for 20 Years

• Anthropic has signed a $9.1 billion, 20-year compute agreement with Bitcoin mining company Riot Platforms(RIOT.US). Riot will deliver 191MW compute capacity from its Rockdale, Texas data center in stages by 2028. If two 5-year extensions are exercised, the nominal value could reach up to $16.1 billion.
• In July, Anthropic signed another 20-year lease for 401MW with TeraWulf in Kentucky, worth $19 billion (up to $33 billion with extensions).
• Other deals include:
  • Volta Infra: $1 billion, 6-year compute contract
  • SpaceX AI: Roughly $45 billion over full term, though contract allows for early termination

These moves reflect that Anthropic’s growth bottleneck is no longer just GPU availability but early access to power, land, data centers, and financing.

CoreWeave(CRWV.US): Over $100 Billion Backlog Shows Unabated AI Compute Demand

CoreWeave’s latest performance demonstrates sustained demand on the supply side:

• Q2 Revenue: $2.575 billion (+112% YoY)
• Net Loss: $626 million (EPS: -$1.14)
• Backlog: $104.2 billion as of Q2 end (+246% YoY, up from $99.4 billion in Q1)
• Q3 Customer Commitments: Over $25 billion (not included in Q2 backlog)
• Active Power Capacity: Added ~500MW in Q2, total now 1.5GW; signed capacity at 3.7GW, rising to 4.2GW by August
• Data Centers: Now operating 51 centers; first industry deployment of Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 system

Management noted that new Q2 contracts have expected profit margins 5-10 percentage points higher than previous quarters.

The focus for CoreWeave is shifting:

Previously, order acquisition was key; now, the ability to convert large backlogs into revenue and cash flow at higher margins is the central issue.

Why Are Tech Giants Betting Big on Neocloud?

Leading tech firms are investing in and collaborating with Neocloud providers at an unprecedented scale:

• Anthropic: Major contracts with TeraWulf Inc.(WULF.US), Riot Platforms(RIOT.US), SpaceX(SPCX.US) AI, Volta Infra, and CoreWeave(CRWV.US)
• Alphabet Inc. Class A(GOOGL.US): Deals with SpaceX(SPCX.US) AI, TeraWulf Inc.(WULF.US), Cipher Mining(CIFR.US), HUT 8(HUT.US), and others
• Microsoft Corporation(MSFT.US): Partnerships with NEBIUS(NBIS.US), IREN Limited(IREN.US), and CoreWeave(CRWV.US)
• NVIDIA Corporation(NVDA.US): Investment and capacity commitments to CoreWeave(CRWV.US), NEBIUS(NBIS.US), and others
• Meta Platforms(META.US): Aggregate commitments in the tens and hundreds of billions

Why Neocloud?

• Speed: Building data centers from scratch is slow—land acquisition, power access, construction, and GPU deployment can take years. Neocloud providers already control key resources, enabling faster deployment.
• Capital Flexibility: Outsourcing reduces upfront costs and lowers risk from rapid GPU obsolescence.
• Supply Chain Diversification: Multiple cloud providers and data center partners help avoid overreliance on any single supplier or technology stack.

Different tech leaders have tailored strategies:

• Microsoft and Meta: View Neocloud as an elastic extension of their own infrastructure.
• OpenAI and Anthropic: Rely heavily on long-term contracts due to lack of proprietary data centers.
• Google and Amazon: Use leases, project financing, and equity stakes to secure scarce resources.
• Nvidia and AMD: Investments support both supply expansion and steady demand for their chips.

Bottom line:
Tech giants are not choosing between building or outsourcing; they maintain core data centers while leveraging Neocloud for faster scaling and risk mitigation.

Competitive Landscape: Who Leads in Neocloud?

Neocloud-related companies can be divided into three main categories:

Full-Stack AI Cloud Platforms (e.g, CoreWeave(CRWV.US)):

• Strengths: High-quality customers, large orders, comprehensive platforms, higher certainty
• Risks: High debt and capex, customer concentration

High-Growth Challengers (e.g, NEBIUS(NBIS.US), IREN Limited(IREN.US)):

• Strengths: Major contracts and vendor support; high growth potential
• Risks: Data center delivery risks, cash flow conversion

Transitional Mining Companies (e.g, Riot Platforms(RIOT.US), TeraWulf Inc.(WULF.US), Cipher Mining(CIFR.US), HUT 8(HUT.US), Core Scientific(CORZ.US)):

• Assets: Power, land, grid access; can be valued as “AI landlords” with long-term leases
• Risks: Construction, financing, transformation challenges

For broader exposure, investors might consider the Roundhill Neocloud ETF(NCLD.US), listing Aug 6, 2026, with top holdings spanning all main categories.

Investment Focus

• Certainty / Platform strength: Focus on CoreWeave(CRWV.US)
• High growth elasticity: Track NEBIUS(NBIS.US) and IREN Limited(IREN.US)
• Event-driven, high volatility: Watch mining companies with long-term/active power contracts

Regardless of company type, it’s critical to look beyond contract value and also monitor:

• Delivered power capacity
• Financing costs
• Speed of order-to-cash-flow conversion

Anthropic’s scramble for compute and CoreWeave's surging backlog illuminate that the AI infrastructure cycle is still heating up. However, in the next phase, winners will be those who can finance at low cost, deliver on time, and turn their orders into sustainable profits—not necessarily those with the largest order books.

Disclaimer: The content is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All the contents shall not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instruments. Any action you take resulting from information, analysis, or commentary on this article is your responsibility. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investments.