Anthropic: Raising the Bar for AI Market Expectations

On August 25, The Wall Street Journal, citing insider sources, reported that Anthropic is preparing to present potential IPO investors with an exceptionally ambitious growth narrative: the company estimates its total addressable market (TAM) could surpass $30 trillion USD. This projection overtakes SpaceX(SPCX.US)’s previously stated $28.5 trillion TAM, making Anthropic's vision one of the most grandiose in IPO history.

Importantly, Anthropic isn’t just making bold promises.

The company forecasts revenues could reach $190–200 billion by 2028. Market chatter suggests that their IPO could raise as much as $100 billion, and target a valuation of up to $2 trillion, with a possible listing as early as September or October.

Should these plans come to fruition, Anthropic wouldn't just set up the next mega-IPO—it would usher the first AI-model-focused company into the $2 trillion valuation club.

But what’s more crucial for public market investors: What existing listed companies might surge in tandem with Anthropic’s debut?

Understanding the $30 Trillion TAM: What Is Anthropic Actually Selling?

TAM, in this context, refers to the total annual revenue possible if a product or service achieves 100% market penetration within its target market.

Anthropic’s calculation is notably aggressive. Instead of focusing solely on chatbots, coding agents, or enterprise API markets, the company includes all potential future tasks that AI models could perform.

In essence, Anthropic is selling Wall Street not just Claude, but the proposition that AI will become the next wave of "digital labor," permeating almost every knowledge-based job and business process.

Therefore, the $30 trillion figure isn’t a near-term projection for 2027 or 2028 revenue. Rather, it represents the hypothetical ceiling Anthropic envisions for the global AI sector.

To put this in perspective: even if Anthropic hits its ambitious 2028 revenue target of $200 billion, that’s only about 0.7% of their outlined TAM.

Thus, Anthropic’s core pitch to investors is: if AI captures even 1%, 2%, or 5% of that market, a model provider’s long-term revenue ceiling could far exceed today’s largest SaaS players.

This is the foundation supporting that $2 trillion valuation narrative.

Anthropic vs. OpenAI: Diverging AI Ecosystem Blueprints

In mid-August, Harbor Capital revealed two innovative ETFs designed to track the AI lab ecosystem: Anthropic AI Lab Ecosystem ETF(ANTW.US) and OpenAI Lab Ecosystem ETF(OAIW.US).

Selected Holdings:

OpenAI Lab Ecosystem ETF(OAIW.US):

Rather than simply acquiring shares in Anthropic or OpenAI (which are not publicly traded), these ETFs focus on public companies most connected to the AI labs through cloud, semiconductors, storage, data centers, utilities, software, and more. Harbor considers factors such as strategic alliances, supply chain relationships, infrastructure, product integration, and customer ties.

Recent portfolio disclosures highlight the distinctions between the two ETFs:

Anthropic: A Heavyweight Play on Compute and Infrastructure

Anthropic AI Lab Ecosystem ETF(ANTW.US) features names such as TeraWulf Inc.(WULF.US), Alphabet Inc. Class C(GOOG.US), American Electric Power Company, Inc.(AEP.US), HUT 8(HUT.US), Micron Technology, Inc.(MU.US), Astera Labs(ALAB.US), Marvell Technology(MRVL.US), Analog Devices, Inc.(ADI.US), Salesforce.com, inc.(CRM.US), Zoom Video Communications(ZM.US), and Akamai Technologies, Inc.(AKAM.US), among others.

This reflects Anthropic’s current capex road map:

The stronger the model → the higher the token usage → the greater the compute demand → more data centers → surging needs for storage, connectivity, and electricity.

Therefore, Anthropic's public debut could have its biggest price impact not on software firms, but fundamentally on the AI infrastructure and energy supply chain.

OpenAI: Leaning Toward Platforms and Super-Scale Compute

OpenAI Lab Ecosystem ETF(OAIW.US), by contrast, tilts toward holdings involved in large-scale compute, cloud platforms, custom chips, and datacenter infrastructure. Notable positions include SoftBank, Oracle Corporation(ORCL.US), Cerebras Systems(CBRS.US), Synopsys, Inc.(SNPS.US), Arm Holdings(ARM.US), Core Scientific(CORZ.US), CoreWeave(CRWV.US), BLOOM ENERGY CORP(BE.US), IREN Limited(IREN.US), Lam Research Corporation(LRCX.US), GE Vernova Inc.(GEV.US), Flex Ltd(FLEX.US), and Celestica Inc.(CLS.US).

In summary: While both Anthropic and OpenAI need massive compute, their partner networks, cloud affiliations, and infrastructure strategies are diverging. For investors, the days of simply “buying Nvidia” to bet on AI are morphing into a more complex ecosystem play.

Where the Real Overlap—and Opportunity—May Lie

Intriguingly, the most important theme may be the companies that both ETFs own.

Their shared positions include:

Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN.US), Microsoft Corporation(MSFT.US), Broadcom Limited(AVGO.US), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.(AMD.US), SK hynix Inc. Sponsored ADR(SKHY.US), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR(TSM.US), NVIDIA Corporation(NVDA.US), Corning Inc(GLW.US), Blackstone Inc.(BX.US), and Inventec.

This list is telling—no matter which AI model succeeds (Anthropic, OpenAI, or even Google/Meta catching up), the underlying themes remain: GPUs/ASICs, High-Bandwidth Memory, advanced chip fabs, networking, servers, data centers, and electricity.

These firms are betting not on which model wins, but on the relentless growth of global AI compute demand.

Anthropic’s IPO: A Catalyst for Repricing the Entire AI Stack

Anthropic’s upcoming IPO is notable for far more than its potential $2 trillion headline valuation.

If a young AI model company can justify a $2 trillion value on the back of $200 billion in forecast 2028 revenue, markets will inevitably confront a new question:

What is the worth of all the compute, data center space, electricity, chips, and storage required to support this revenue scale?

ETF weightings in Anthropic and OpenAI’s “ecosystem” funds already offer a snapshot of where capital may flow.

From NVIDIA Corporation(NVDA.US), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.(AMD.US), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR(TSM.US), and SK hynix Inc. Sponsored ADR(SKHY.US), to CoreWeave(CRWV.US), TeraWulf Inc.(WULF.US), HUT 8(HUT.US), and extending to American Electric Power Company, Inc.(AEP.US), BLOOM ENERGY CORP(BE.US), and GE Vernova Inc.(GEV.US)—AI value is cascading from model companies to the hard infrastructure that underpins them.

Caveats and Risks

That said, two key risks must be acknowledged:

1. The $30 trillion TAM remains an extremely optimistic, long-term assumption—it does not imply Anthropic will ever capture revenue anywhere near that scale.
2. These ETFs, Anthropic AI Lab Ecosystem ETF(ANTW.US) and OpenAI Lab Ecosystem ETF(OAIW.US), are “ecosystem ETFs,” not direct stakes in Anthropic or OpenAI. Their prospectuses clarify that investors cannot currently buy shares directly in these private AI labs. Thus, these funds should not be seen as “proxy stocks” for Anthropic or OpenAI.

As Anthropic’s IPO approaches the home stretch, one thing is clear:

Wall Street is no longer just pricing Claude—it is beginning to value the entire Anthropic ecosystem.

And when OpenAI finally lists, we can expect a very similar valuation game to play out again.

Disclaimer: The content is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All the contents shall not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instruments. Any action you take resulting from information, analysis, or commentary on this article is your responsibility. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investments.