Arabian Drilling Company (TADAWUL:2381) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of ر.س765m leading estimates by 2.7%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at ر.س0.35 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Arabian Drilling's eleven analysts is for revenues of ر.س3.40b in 2026. This reflects an okay 4.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Arabian Drilling is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of ر.س1.10 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ر.س3.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س1.61 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at ر.س98.56, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Arabian Drilling at ر.س121 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ر.س68.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Arabian Drilling shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Arabian Drilling's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.4% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.2% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Arabian Drilling is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Arabian Drilling. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Arabian Drilling's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Arabian Drilling going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.