Blackstone’s recent performance snapshot

Blackstone (BX) has moved higher over the past month, with the share price closing at US$126.35. That recent gain sits alongside negative returns year to date and over the past 3 months.

For context, Blackstone’s 1 year total return is slightly negative. However, 3 year and 5 year total returns are well above that level, reflecting a different picture over longer holding periods.

That pattern of a 10.51% 1 month share price return alongside a 20.43% year to date share price decline and a 5.59% 1 year total shareholder return loss suggests recent strength is rebuilding after a weaker stretch.

If Blackstone’s rebound has you thinking about where else capital is moving, this is a good time to broaden your search and check out 18 top founder-led companies

So, with Blackstone trading at US$126.35 after a 10.51% one-month rebound but a 20.43% year-to-date decline, is the current valuation leaving meaningful upside on the table, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 22.1% Undervalued

Blackstone’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of $162.26 per share, compared with the recent close at $126.35, framing a sizeable valuation gap.

The firm is well-positioned to benefit from market dislocation with $177 billion of dry powder available for opportunistic investments, potentially increasing future earnings as capital is deployed in undervalued assets. Blackstone's strategic alliance with Wellington and Vanguard aims to develop integrated public private investment solutions, potentially expanding revenue channels by tapping into the private wealth market.

Want to see what sits behind that gap between fair value and today’s price? The core of this narrative is ambitious growth in both earnings and margins, supported by a richer mix of capital flows and higher fee potential. Curious which revenue and profit assumptions justify that outlook and how they translate into a higher valuation over time? The full breakdown shows exactly how those projections stack up against today’s share price.

Result: Fair Value of $162.26 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upside story still hinges on risks around BCRED redemption pressure hitting fee related earnings, as well as any broader pullback in real estate values across Blackstone’s portfolios.

Another view on valuation

The fair value narrative suggests Blackstone appears undervalued, but the P/E picture sends a different signal. The current P/E of 32.5x is below the US Capital Markets average of 41.9x, yet above the fair ratio of 25x that the market could move toward. That would imply valuation risk rather than a clear bargain. How much weight do you place on that earnings multiple gap compared with the potential upside case described above?

Next Steps

Taking all of this in, does Blackstone look more like an opportunity or a source of concern right now? If you want to move quickly from headline impressions to your own conviction, review the potential upside and downside in our breakdown of 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.