Netflix (NFLX) is moving into daily live programming, with iHeartMedia’s The Breakfast Club set to stream live each weekday, giving subscribers nearly three hours of uninterrupted, real time video content.

The stock is trading at US$88.60, with a 90 day share price return of 16.55% but a year to date share price decline of 2.63%. The 1 year total shareholder return has fallen 25.26%, highlighting how shorter term momentum contrasts with weaker recent longer term outcomes as Netflix leans further into live and advertising supported content.

If this kind of media shift has your attention, it could be a good moment to look beyond Netflix and uncover 63 profitable AI stocks that aren't just burning cash

With Netflix shares down 25.26% over the past year but recently rebounding 16.55% in 90 days, and trading at a small 4.67% discount to one intrinsic value estimate, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 88.9% Undervalued

According to one of the most followed narratives on Netflix, the gap between the last close at $88.60 and a fair value estimate of $797.74 is wide, and it rests on a detailed view of subscriber growth, pricing power and margins rather than short term share price moves.

With this in mind, that this changes my FV quite a bit. If I assume 25% net income margins on $69bn in revenue, that delivers $17.25bn in earnings in 2029, instead of my original $10.56bn earnings estimate for 2028. With a 30x PE on $17bn in earnings, this would be a $517bn market cap in 2029. Dividend by 427m in shares outstanding, this equates to $1,210 per share. Discounted back at 8%, per year, that means my new FV estimate is $797 per share.

Curious how this valuation comes together? The narrative leans on sustained member growth, rising revenue per user and higher margins baked into that future earnings line.

Result: Fair Value of $797.74 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this upbeat narrative could still be knocked off course if cost discipline slips or member growth in key regions slows more than the market expects.

Next Steps

With such a strong split between risks and rewards, it makes sense to move quickly, review the data for yourself, and weigh up 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Netflix is on your radar, do not stop there. Cast a wider net across other stocks and let data driven screeners surface opportunities you might otherwise miss.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.