NOAA’s formal certification of TMC the metals (TMC) USA’s exploration license for the USA B seabed area has pushed this deep-sea minerals stock back into focus for investors watching critical metals supply chains.

The certification news has come alongside a sharp swing in sentiment. TMC’s share price is at US$6.16 after a 1-day share price return of 7.88%, a 30-day share price return of 21.74%, and a 1-year total shareholder return of 41.61%. The 3-year total shareholder return is very large at close to 8x, indicating that momentum has recently picked up after a weaker year to date.

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With TMC’s share price already up strongly over the past year and analysts’ price targets sitting higher than today’s US$6.16 level, the key question is whether the stock still trades below its potential or whether markets are already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 45% Undervalued

The most followed narrative for TMC the metals points to a fair value of $11.20, well above the last close at $6.16. This frames a long term, permit driven story.

The pre feasibility study and initial assessment outline a large resource with an estimated combined NPV of US$23.6b, targeted steady state revenue of about US$600 per dry ton and an EBITDA margin per ton of roughly 43%. If the company moves closer to these project economics while remaining in the first quartile of the cost curve, that cost position could support resilient margins and long term EBITDA and earnings power.

Want to see what is backing that valuation gap? The narrative leans on aggressive revenue build, meaningful margin uplift and a rich future earnings multiple. The full story joins these pieces together.

Result: Fair Value of $11.20 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this upbeat story can unravel if NOAA permitting slips beyond expectations or if cash burn and funding needs rise, which could force heavier dilution than analysts model.

Next Steps

With such a mixed but constructive tone so far, it makes sense to move quickly and test the story against the underlying data yourself using 2 key rewards and 6 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.