“Big Short” investor Steve Eisman said this week that SpaceX’s expected IPO valuation is “kind of crazy,” and the only way to justify it is for the stock to become a “retail cult stock.”

SpaceX is expected to debut June 12 under ticker SPCX, in what may be the largest IPO ever.

A Sci-Fi Story At 100 Times Sales

Eisman said on his weekly podcast that SpaceX is targeting close to 100 times sales, far above Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), which trades at around 14 times revenue despite 85% growth last quarter.

Even Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR), with the sector’s highest price-to-sales multiple at 70 times trailing, sits well below the SpaceX ask.

The S-1 mission statement mentions extending “the light of consciousness to the stars” 10 times, lists asteroid mining as a potential future business, and reads like “a Star Trek episode,” Eisman said.

The filing also claims a $28.5 trillion total addressable market, with 93% attributed to AI, the smallest and most loss-making segment. Eisman cited reports that SpaceX’s own engineers refuse to use Grok.

Musk has reserved 30% of the offering for retail, which Eisman called “unheard of for a serious company.” Eisman also criticized Nasdaq for bending its rules to fast-track SpaceX into indices in just 15 days.

The Core Rocket Business Is Shrinking

SpaceX’s S-1 shows $4.7 billion in Q1 2026 revenue. Eisman said the headline 15% growth masks a contraction in the core business.

The Space division, which handles rocket launches, generated $619 million, down 28% year-over-year per Eisman on lower launch missions and government contract timing. Starlink connectivity brought in $3.26 billion at a $1.19 billion operating profit, the only segment in the black.

The AI division pulled in $818 million on a $2.47 billion operating loss, roughly $3 lost per $1 of revenue. A new May cloud services agreement with Anthropic worth $1.25 billion per month through 2029 has not yet ramped.

Polymarket Sees A Day One Pop

On Polymarket, the day-one closing market puts a $2.2 trillion-plus valuation at 64%, meaning traders are pricing in a pop above the offering range on day one.

The odds of the IPO being completed by June 15th are 85%, and 96% by June 30th.

A Tesla Merger On The Horizon

Eisman also flagged rumors that Musk may merge SpaceX with Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) after the IPO, calling the combined company “unbelievably complex.”

Chamath Palihapitiya and Dan Ives have both suggested a merger of the two companies is likely. Kalshi currently prices a merger before April 1, 2027 at 57%.

If Polymarket is right about a day-one pop above $2 trillion, Eisman’s cult-stock warning becomes the bull case for whoever buys at the open.

Image: Shutterstock