The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

By Oliver Taslic

LONDON, May 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - “There are a few American television shows which make Paris look extremely attractive,” remarked Air France-KLM AIRF.PA CEO Ben Smith last year, presumably referring to “Emily in Paris”, the hit Netflix series. The show, which debuted in late 2020, speaks to the seemingly insatiable post-pandemic appetite of wealthy Americans for fancy transatlantic sojourns – even if Europeans aren’t quite as enthusiastic about going the other way. Airlines that fly U.S. travellers across the pond – like Air France-KLM, British Airways owner IAG ICAG.L and Deutsche Lufthansa LHAG.DE – will be hoping the trend continues, given a dicier outlook at home.

Affluent Americans have done unusually well in recent years. Despite a few wobbles, the dollar is still 10% stronger against a basket of other major currencies compared with five years ago. U.S. stock markets have been on a tear, helped of late by AI fervour. The S&P 500 Index is up almost 80% over the past half-decade, whereas a global MSCI benchmark of non-U.S. stocks .dMIWU00000PUS has risen just over 30%. More than a third of U.S. net personal wealth is held in securities and other financial instruments, according to UBS, much higher than in other developed countries.

That adds up to lots of money to splash out on vacations to Paris, Madrid and Lake Como. International trips by U.S. citizens grew around 10% between 2019 and 2025, according to data from the International Trade Administration, but travel to Europe was up over 20%. Airlines have noticed. Carriers on both sides of the Atlantic are ramping up their premium offerings. Upmarket demand proved resilient after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the “Liberation Day” 2025 tariff announcement.

With intra-Europe flying facing a tough summer – given the backdrop of higher fuel costs, nervous consumers and an increase in seats on offer – airlines will hope U.S. high rollers can step up again. Tight supply in transatlantic flying gives carriers pricing power. Though flights to certain countries like Italy and Ireland are growing faster, schedule data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows a slight year-on-year decline in seats available between the U.S. and Europe this summer. The chief commercial officer of Delta Air Lines DAL.N said last month that the transatlantic market was looking “very good”, while Lufthansa called out strong sales in the U.S. while announcing first-quarter results.

There may be headwinds. The European Travel Commission said in February that 34% of U.S. survey respondents were intending to travel to the region in 2026 – down year-on-year. Another survey from UBS, conducted in March and April, showed a small dip in American interest in long-haul leisure travel, with respondents expecting to take an average of 1.3 flights over the next 12 months, versus 1.4 in last year’s survey. Worries about rising fuel prices, thanks to the Iran war, may encourage some Americans to plan their summer vacations closer to home.

Still, similar fears have proved wrong before. The S&P 500 is up 9% since the day before the Gulf conflict began, meaning rich Americans’ animal spirits may be high. That’s a tailwind for European airlines.

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CONTEXT NEWS

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said he was increasingly confident the airline can reach double-digit pre-tax margins next year, as easing oil prices and resilient demand help it recover more of the hit from higher fuel costs, Reuters reported on May 27.

Speaking at a Bernstein investor conference, Kirby said United expects to recover a little less than 50% of the fuel hit in the current quarter, but lower oil prices had reduced the hurdle to full recovery, according to the report.

Kirby said the carrier had not seen a meaningful pullback in demand after fare increases, though he said some price sensitivity was still likely.