Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) posted a $394 million net loss in Q1, but Bernstein maintains its outperform rating and $330 price target, implying 71% upside from Thursday’s close at $192.96.

Q1 Results Miss Across The Board

Coinbase revenue came in at $1.41 billion at its earnings cal, missing estimates by 5%. Adjusted EBITDA of $303 million fell 26% short of expectations. 

The company posted a net loss of $394.1 million, reflecting $482 million in unrealized losses tied to its crypto investment portfolio.

Weaker crypto markets weighed on both trading activity and subscription revenue.

Total crypto market capitalization and industry trading volumes both dropped more than 20% from the prior quarter.

Total spot trading volume fell 25% quarter-over-quarter to $202 billion.

Retail trading volume dropped 36% to $36 billion, while monthly transacting users declined 10% to 8.2 million.

The Everything Exchange Strategy Takes Shape

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani pointed to growing contributions from newer businesses outside core spot trading operations as catalysts for upside.

Retail derivatives are now annualizing more than $200 million in revenue. Institutional derivatives tied to the Deribit acquisition are annualizing above $250 million.

Moreover, prediction markets surpassed a $100 million annualized revenue run rate in March, becoming one of the fastest-growing products in Coinbase’s history.

Base And USDC Infrastructure Scales

Bernstein highlighted Coinbase’s efforts to build out stablecoin and payments infrastructure around USDC and Base. Base-based stablecoin transaction volume grew tenfold year-over-year.

More than 90% of agentic stablecoin transaction volume during the quarter occurred on the Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) Layer-2 network. 

Coinbase’s strategy is a vertically integrated stack built around USDC, Base, payments APIs, and the x402 protocol for agentic commerce.

Catalysts Ahead Despite Weak Quarter

Bernstein argued the market may still be underestimating potential catalysts ahead for Coinbase and the broader crypto sector. 

Expected progress on the CLARITY Act and recent comments from White House crypto officials regarding a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could drive upside.

Coinbase reached an all-time high in crypto trading market share, supported by gains in both spot and derivatives trading despite the weak quarter.

COIN Stock Tests Key Support At $174

COIN stuck inside a lower high structure since March. The tightening range between $174 support and $198 resistance matters now. 

Buyers defended the $174 Supertrend level multiple times during April, preventing a fresh breakdown.

If COIN loses $174, the chart opens room toward the February base near $150. 

Bulls need a decisive close above $198 to regain control and shift momentum toward the $231 recovery zone.

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