• In recent days, Eli Lilly’s newly approved oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug Foundayo has shown slower-than-hoped prescription uptake, lagging Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy and raising questions about Lilly’s competitive position in the expanding obesity market.
• At the same time, Lilly is reshaping its pipeline through moves such as exiting a RIPK1 collaboration with Rigel and agreeing to acquire Kelonia Therapeutics for about US$3.25 billion upfront to deepen its oncology and genetic medicines capabilities.
• We’ll examine how Foundayo’s early prescription trends and intensifying GLP-1 competition may influence Eli Lilly’s previously bullish investment narrative.

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Eli Lilly Investment Narrative Recap

To own Eli Lilly today, you have to believe its GLP‑1 obesity and diabetes franchise remains the core earnings engine, while oncology and other therapies gradually deepen the story. The key near term catalyst is how quickly Foundayo and Zepbound prescriptions scale, and early Foundayo softness plus slightly weaker weekly GLP‑1 data have dented sentiment but do not yet fundamentally change that focus. The biggest immediate risk remains intense GLP‑1 competition and payer pushback on reimbursement and access.

Among the recent updates, Lilly’s US$3.25 billion upfront deal for Kelonia Therapeutics stands out, because it underscores how management is trying to broaden beyond incretins into oncology and genetic medicines. For investors watching Foundayo’s slower start, Kelonia’s in vivo CAR‑T platform and KLN‑1010 multiple myeloma program are important context: they highlight a parallel pipeline aimed at supporting longer term earnings catalysts even if obesity drug momentum becomes more uneven.

Yet behind the GLP‑1 excitement, investors should be aware of growing payer leverage and access decisions that could abruptly reshape Lilly’s prescription growth and pricing power...

Eli Lilly's narrative projects $106.9 billion revenue and $42.9 billion earnings by 2029.

Uncover how Eli Lilly's forecasts yield a $1209 fair value, a 37% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before this prescription data, the most bullish analysts were assuming Lilly could reach about US$124.5 billion of revenue and US$50.0 billion of earnings by 2029, so compared with the baseline view they were much more optimistic that orforglipron and LillyDirect could offset risks from rising payer power and formulary exclusions.

Explore 25 other fair value estimates on Eli Lilly - why the stock might be worth just $883.99!

Decide For Yourself

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Eli Lilly research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Eli Lilly research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Eli Lilly's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.