Dow (DOW) opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of US$9.8b and a basic EPS loss of US$0.74, as net income excluding extra items came in at a loss of US$533m with a share price around US$38.66. Over recent quarters, the company has seen revenue move from US$10.4b in Q1 2025 to US$9.8b in Q1 2026. Quarterly basic EPS has ranged from a loss of US$2.15 in Q4 2025 to a small profit of US$0.08 in Q3 2025 before returning to loss territory. For investors, the latest numbers keep the focus on how quickly margins can stabilize and whether the current loss profile can be reshaped into a more sustainable earnings base.

See our full analysis for Dow.

With the headline figures on the table, the next step is to see how these results line up against the widely followed narratives around Dow's potential rewards and ongoing risks.

Losses Persist On A 12 Month View

• On a trailing 12 month basis, Dow generated about US$39.3b of revenue but recorded a net loss of US$2.9b, with basic EPS at a loss of US$4.00.
• Bears argue that multi year loss trends and capital intensive assets keep earnings under pressure, and the recent trailing loss of US$2.9b alongside weak coverage of debt by operating cash flow fits that concern. However, the fact that Q1 2026 net loss of US$533m is smaller than the Q4 2025 loss of US$1.5b adds some nuance to the bearish view.
  • Bearish commentary points to prolonged oversupply in core products and the need for heavy reinvestment, and the trailing 12 month loss together with an unprofitable Q1 2026 result align with that earnings pressure.
  • At the same time, the shift from a US$1.5b loss in Q4 2025 to a US$533m loss in Q1 2026 indicates that quarterly results are not moving in a straight line. This means bears leaning only on the trailing 12 month loss may be simplifying a more mixed pattern.

Bears highlight how repeated losses and cash flow pressure could weigh on Dow for longer, and this latest set of numbers gives you a clear baseline to test that cautious story against 🐻 Dow Bear Case

Revenue Near US$10b But Margin Pressure Visible

• Q1 2026 revenue came in at US$9.8b versus US$10.4b in Q1 2025, while net income excluding extra items moved from a loss of US$310m to a loss of US$533m over the same quarters, showing that profit pressure has persisted even around a similar revenue scale.
• Bullish investors focus on cost actions and asset optimization to support a future margin rebound, and they point to moves like European shutdowns and delayed large projects. Yet the current quarterly pattern of a US$533m loss on US$9.8b of sales means the bullish story still has to bridge a gap between today’s negative margins and the earnings recovery they expect.
  • Bullish narrative points to US$1b of annual cost reductions and asset sales providing several billions of cash, and if those plans gain traction they are expected to help shift profits from the current loss base. However, Q1 2026 results do not yet show that turnaround in reported net income.
  • Supporters also highlight investments in higher margin units and sustainability focused products. Yet with Q1 2026 EPS at a loss of US$0.74 after a small profit of US$0.08 in Q3 2025, the path from mixed quarterly profits and losses to the forecast earnings growth still depends on future execution rather than current profitability.

Bulls argue that today’s margin strain is the setup for a more efficient portfolio, so if you want to see how that optimistic case stacks up against the current loss making results, it is worth reading the full bullish narrative 🐂 Dow Bull Case

Valuation Looks Cheaper While Profitability Lags

• At a share price of US$38.66, Dow is trading below an indicated DCF fair value of about US$51.05 and on a P/S of 0.7x compared with peers at 0.9x and a US chemicals industry average of 1.1x, even though the business is still loss making on trailing earnings.
• Consensus narrative often flags this mix of a lower P/S multiple and unprofitable trailing results as a trade off between valuation appeal and earnings risk, with the roughly 24% gap to DCF fair value and forecasts for earnings to turn positive within three years sitting against trailing basic EPS of a loss of US$4.00 and a dividend yield of 3.62% that is not well covered by earnings or free cash flow.
  • Supporters of the more optimistic angle point to projected earnings growth of 45.1% a year once profitable and revenue growth of 3.7% a year, but those projections are starting from a base of US$2.9b in trailing 12 month losses.
  • Meanwhile, critics focus on the weak coverage of both dividends and debt by operating cash flow, which means that even if the current P/S and discount to DCF fair value look attractive on paper, the quality of the cash flows behind those valuation metrics is still a key question for investors.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Dow on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

The mix of risks and rewards around Dow is clear, so this is the moment to look through the numbers yourself and decide what matters most for your portfolio. To weigh the downside against the potential upside in one place, start by reviewing these 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

See What Else Is Out There

Dow is working through a stretch of trailing losses, pressured margins and weak coverage of dividends and debt by operating cash flow.

If you want companies where the balance sheet does more of the heavy lifting, it is worth checking stocks in the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (42 results).

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.