A week ago, Almarai Company (TADAWUL:2280) came out with a strong set of second-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.8% to hit ر.س5.9b. Almarai reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) ر.س0.64, which was a notable 18% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Almarai after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Almarai's 14 analysts is for revenues of ر.س23.7b in 2026. This reflects a modest 2.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be ر.س2.47, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ر.س23.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س2.53 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at ر.س57.21, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Almarai analyst has a price target of ر.س68.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ر.س45.50. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Almarai shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Almarai's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 7.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 29 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Almarai's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at ر.س57.21, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Almarai analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.