The era of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) as just a car company may be just about over.

CEO Elon Musk announced during the Q4 earnings call that the company will end production of its flagship Model S and Model X vehicles next quarter.

Musk called the decision an “honorable discharge” for the vehicles that put Tesla on the map.

But for investors, the message is far more aggressive: Tesla is focusing on what Musk says is the biggest product in history: the Optimus humanoid robot.

By killing the S and X—which generated reliable cash flow—Tesla is signaling that its future is no longer tied to selling premium EVs to humans.

It is tied to selling labor to companies.

Musk says the goal is to replace the lines with an Optimus assembly line targeting 1 million units per year.

According to the earnings report, Tesla plans to start production of Optimus before the end of 2026.

Yet, prediction markets are betting heavily that the robot won’t be ready anytime soon.

On Polymarket, the contract for “Will Tesla release Optimus by…?” paints a grim picture of investor confidence:

• By June 30: Traders give it just a 5% chance—meaning the market sees almost zero possibility of Optimus shipping when the S/X lines shut down.
• By Dec. 31: The odds only improve to 16%.

This move comes at a fragile moment: Tesla’s revenue is down 3% this year, marking the first annual drop in the company’s history amid fierce competition from Chinese EV makers.

The company faces a significant risk if automotive revenue continues to slide while the replacement revenue from Optimus proves further out than Musk claims.

If the prediction markets are right, Tesla is entering a period of maximum uncertainty.

It has voluntarily cut revenue today for a product that may not yield a dollar of profit for years.

Investors may want to be aware of being increasingly exposed to Elon Musk’s ability to beat the odds, again.

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