EMERGING MARKETS-S.Korea slides as AI selloff deepens; Gulf tensions cloud Asia outlook

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S.Korea's KOSPI down 22% month-to-date

Investors eye Bank Indonesia meeting on Wednesday

Thai baht falls to 33.70 per dollar

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By Shivangi Lahiri

- Emerging Asian equities diverged on Monday, as a 5% slide in South Korean shares underscored a deepening unwind in the AI trade, while an escalating war in the Gulf drove oil prices higher and revived inflation concerns across the region.

Shares in Seoul .KS11 fell as much as 5.1% as trading resumed after a market holiday on Friday. The benchmark KOSPI gauge has slumped more than 22% for the month so far, confirming a bear market.

Taiwan's tech-heavy index .TWII rose as much as 1% before paring gains, while the MSCI EM Asia equities index .MIMS00000PUS edged 0.5% lower.

The South Korean and Taiwanese benchmark gauges together account for about 60% of the MSCI equities index.

"Investors now are reassessing the sustainability of AI capex demand in the longer term, and Korea, which produces AI memory chips for data centres, are more sensitive to changes in market sentiment," said Kelvin Lam, senior China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, while noting that Taiwan's ecosystem is lesser exposed than South Korea.

Citi analysts cut Korea to "neutral" in their EM country allocation, from "overweight" since July 2025, citing volatile trading conditions even as the market continues to rank strongly in their fundamentals-based models.

Markets took a further hit on Friday after Chinese AI firm Moonshot unveiled Kimi K3, an open-weight model it said nears Anthropic's frontier Fable system, raising the stakes for this week's earnings from Alphabet GOOGL.O, Intel INTC.O and Tesla TSLA.O.

"This inevitably revived intense, DeepSeek-esque worries about a race to the bottom on model compute undercutting staggering investments by hyperscalers," said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank.

In Southeast Asia, stocks in Jakarta .JKSE rose as much as 1.2% to their highest point since mid-June, while stocks in Manila .PSI clocked similar gains to hit their highest level since March 3.

Among currencies in the region, the Indonesian rupiah IDR= weakened to 17,991 against the dollar at open, before strengthening to as much as 17,960 later in the session.

Markets also turn their focus to Bank Indonesia's meeting due later in the week, with the central bank expected to raise rates again to stabilize the rupiah.

Elsewhere, the Thai baht THB=TH weakened to as much as 33.70 per dollar, while Taiwan's dollar TWD=TP fell to as much as 32.436 per dollar, with both currencies hitting their lowest levels since late April.

The Thai baht has already been weighed down by low carry returns and a weakening current account, analysts at Maybank said, adding that they expect the currency to remain among the region's weaker performers this month given the lack of supportive catalysts. The baht has fallen 1.2% in July so far.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Japan markets closed for a public holiday

** Yield on Indonesia's 10-year bonds ID10YT=RR unchanged at 7.267%

** China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged for 14th consecutive month in July

** Malaysia's June exports rise 45.4% y/y, below forecast



Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0416 GMT

COUNTRY

FX RIC

FX DAILY %

FX YTD %

INDEX

STOCKS DAILY %

STOCKS YTD %

Japan

JPY=

-

-3.52

.N225

-

23.75

China

CNY=CFXS

+0.06

+3.20

.SSEC

1.18

-4.04

India

INR=IN

-0.18

-6.82

.NSEI

-0.61

-7.44

Indonesia

IDR=

-0.47

-7.23

.JKSE

0.85

-27.97

Malaysia

MYR=

+0.05

-0.78

.KLSE

-0.25

2.80

Philippines

PHP=

-0.22

-4.67

.PSI

0.98

6.84

S.Korea

KRW=KFTC

+0.30

-2.83

.KS11

-4.98

53.79

Singapore

SGD=

+0.08

-0.36

.STI

0.06

18.65

Taiwan

TWD=TP

-0.35

-2.97

.TWII

0.11

47.49

Thailand

THB=

-0.10

-6.50

.SETI

-0.12

29.97