The FDA said over the weekend that a Taylor Farms lettuce sample that had tested positive for cyclospora was a false positive, according to Reuters, walking back the clearest physical evidence tying the produce supplier to a nationwide outbreak that has sickened thousands.

Investigators say their epidemiologic and traceback work still converges on shredded iceberg lettuce supplied to Taco Bell by Taylor Farms, and the company’s voluntary recall across 27 states remains fully active.

That leaves a fractured picture: no positive sample, yet a named supplier and a live recall.

Taco Bell removed the supplier’s lettuce from its restaurants and nationwide supply chain, replacing it within 24 hours in the affected states.

By The Numbers

Nearly 7,000 people have been confirmed or are under investigation for cyclosporiasis since May. The CDC’s own count is lower, at 1,645 lab-confirmed cases and 141 hospitalizations, because the agency tallies only cases it has individually verified as domestically acquired, a process that runs up to six weeks behind.

States report faster and higher: Michigan alone has logged more than 6,000 cases, the most in the country. At this point last year, only 249 had been reported nationally.

Cyclosporiasis is seasonal, peaking from May through August. The U.S. recorded about 2,700 cases in all of 2025, according to the CDC.

A Polymarket contract on U.S. cyclosporiasis cases by July 31 gives roughly 97% odds the count clears 1,800 and about 94% for 2,000 or more. The chance of 5,000 or more is at 57%, and 10,000 at just 6%.

The market tracks only the CDC’s confirmed count by July 31, not the faster-moving state tallies.

Taco Bell

The name most exposed is Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE:YUM), the parent of Taco Bell. Shares slid as much as 4.5% intraday when the probe broke and fell roughly 8% over the following week.

Wall Street still leans Buy on YUM, with an average price target near $174, well above the current level around $147.

Taco Bell foot traffic sank 18.9% in early July, with Chipotle and CAVA also seeing declines.

Photo: Manu Padilla / Shutterstock