Ferguson Enterprises Q1 2026 headline numbers

Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) opened fiscal Q1 2026 with revenue of about US$7.5b and basic EPS of US$2.13, setting a clear marker for how the business is starting the new financial year. The company has seen quarterly revenue move from roughly US$7.2b in Q1 2025 to about US$7.5b in Q4 2025 and then US$7.5b in Q1 2026. Basic EPS has shifted from US$1.74 to US$1.99 and then US$2.13 over the same periods, giving investors a view on how earnings are tracking alongside sales. With trailing net profit margins at 6.1% over the last year, these results draw attention to how efficiently Ferguson is turning its top line into profit.

See our full analysis for Ferguson Enterprises.

With the headline figures on the table, the next step is to see how they line up against the dominant market and community narratives around Ferguson, highlighting where the story matches expectations and where it starts to diverge.

Margin improvement shows up in the bottom line

• On a trailing basis Ferguson earned US$1.96b of net income on US$31.1b of revenue, which works out to a 6.1% net margin versus 5.5% a year earlier according to the analysis data.
• What stands out for the bullish narrative is that this higher 6.1% margin sits alongside 13.9% earnings growth over the past year, while bullish analysts are assuming margins edge up further to about 6.7% and earnings reach roughly US$2.6b by 2029, so:
  • The current margin level and trailing earnings of roughly US$2.0b align with the idea that Ferguson is already operating in the range those bulls are building into their models.
  • At the same time, the move from 5.5% to 6.1% margins is more modest than the multi year step up assumed by bullish forecasts, so the latest numbers only partly support that more optimistic path.

Bulls argue that the recent 13.9% earnings growth could be just the starting point for a longer margin story, and the full bullish case sets out how data centers, Waterworks and acquisitions might support that view over time 🐂 Ferguson Enterprises Bull Case

Earnings growth vs slower revenue forecasts

• Over the last 12 months earnings grew 13.9%, while the same dataset cites forecast revenue growth of about 6% per year and forecast earnings growth of roughly 8.6% per year, both below the market growth figures referenced, with the market earnings rate at 16% and revenue at 11.2%.
• Analysts' consensus view points to steady but not top tier growth, and the Q1 2026 print of US$7.5b in revenue and US$414m of net income fits that picture. Yet it also raises a few questions:
  • The combination of 13.9% trailing earnings growth and a 6.1% margin looks stronger than the forward 8.6% earnings and 6% revenue growth that consensus is using, so recent performance sits slightly ahead of those mid single digit assumptions.
  • Because the same data flags residential and HVAC headwinds alongside stronger nonresidential and Waterworks activity, the mixed end market backdrop helps explain why consensus still places Ferguson below the broader market growth rates even after a solid year.

Valuation premium, debt and the DCF gap

• The stock trades at a P/E of 26.1x, above the US trade distributors industry average of 23.7x but slightly below the peer average of 27.5x, while a cited DCF fair value of about US$233.61 sits under the current share price of US$252.21.
• Bears focus on this mix of a valuation premium and higher leverage, and the numbers give them some support alongside a few challenges:
  • The premium to the broader industry and the gap between the current price and the DCF fair value both fit the cautious view that investors are already paying up for Ferguson's 13.9% earnings growth and 6.1% margin.
  • However, the P/E being a little below the peer average and the absence of major risk flags beyond a high debt comment show that while valuation is not cheap on these figures, it is also not at the very top of the range that some bearish scenarios might imply.

Skeptics often point to the richer P/E, high debt and DCF gap when arguing for caution, and the bear case lays out how slower growth or project lumpiness could make those concerns more pressing over time 🐻 Ferguson Enterprises Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Ferguson Enterprises on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

The mix of bullish and cautious signals in this update is clear, so it is worth checking the numbers yourself and weighing both sides quickly, starting with the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

See What Else Is Out There

Ferguson carries a relatively rich P/E, relies on higher leverage and has a DCF fair value sitting below its current share price, which leaves limited valuation comfort.

If that mix of premium pricing and debt makes you uneasy, it is worth quickly comparing against companies screened for stronger balance sheets using the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (46 results).

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.