The investors in Gartner, Inc.'s (NYSE:IT) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 21% to US$185 in the week following its second-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$1.7b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Gartner surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$4.14 per share, a notable 17% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following last week's earnings report, Gartner's 13 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$6.42b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 12% to US$13.72. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.90 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Gartner's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target rose 16% to US$186, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Gartner at US$229 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$150. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Gartner shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.2% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.4% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 15% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Gartner is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Gartner's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Gartner analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.