Goldman Sachs maintains second-quarter European gas outlook on weak Asian demand
Goldman Sachs GS | 0.00 |
April 27 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs late on Sunday left its second-quarter European natural gas price forecasts unchanged, as a drop in liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand in Asia offsets the delay in normalization of Persian Gulf LNG exports.
GS says it leaves the balance of second-quarter natural gas price forecasts unchanged at 50 euros/MWh ($16.90/mmBtu) for Europe, and $18.15/mmBtu for the Japan and (South) Korea market (JKM).
The bank says it also maintains fourth-quarter TTF and JKM forecasts of 40 euros/MWh and $14.65/mmBtu, respectively.
The TTF (Title Transfer Facility) is the main reference virtual market for gas trading in Europe.
GS says the drop in Asia LNG demand continues to be primarily led by China, where the latest data suggest a combination of gas destocking and weak gas demand.
GS says it now assumes normalization in Persian Gulf LNG exports starting in mid-May and complete by late-June, after previously expecting them from mid-April to late-May.
GS says its average 9 million tons per annum (mtpa) downward revision to Asia LNG demand for the balance of the summer largely offsets the 10 mtpa incremental supply loss from a later Strait of Hormuz flow ramp.
GS says in an adverse scenario, TTF would likely move towards 65 euros/MWh in the third quarter, destroying incremental Asia LNG demand if a full normalization of Strait of Hormuz flows were only reached in late July, lifting its Europe outlook for the balance of 2026 second quarter to 58 euros/MWh.
GS says in a severely adverse scenario, it expects TTF to reach 80 euros/MWh in the third quarter and remain at that level through year-end.
GS says that, in a benign scenario, it expects TTF to average 40 EUR/MW for the remainder of the year, reflecting no risk premium.
