As you might know, Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:HRMY) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$215m revenue coming in 2.5% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.55 missed the mark badly, arriving some 21% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Harmony Biosciences Holdings' ten analysts is for revenues of US$1.01b in 2026. This reflects a solid 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 40% to US$3.52. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.51 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$44.36, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Harmony Biosciences Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$85.00 and the most bearish at US$28.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Harmony Biosciences Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 17% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 26% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Harmony Biosciences Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$44.36, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Harmony Biosciences Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Harmony Biosciences Holdings Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.