• Wondering whether Gartner at around US$155 a share is starting to look interesting on price, or if it still has more to fall? This article will help you frame that question clearly.
• The stock has been volatile, with a 3.7% decline over the last 7 days, a 4.1% gain over the last 30 days, and deeper share price falls of 34.4% year to date and 62.8% over the last year.
• Recent coverage around Gartner has focused on how investors are reassessing higher growth, higher multiple software names as sentiment toward the sector shifts. That context matters because it can influence whether the current share price reflects business fundamentals or mostly changing risk appetite.
• Simply Wall St currently gives Gartner a valuation score of 4 out of 6. The rest of this article will walk through what different valuation approaches say about that score, before finishing with a broader way to think about the company’s value beyond the usual models.

Approach 1: Gartner Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes Gartner’s projected future cash flows and then discounts them back to today using a required rate of return to estimate what the business might be worth per share right now.

Gartner’s latest twelve month free cash flow is about $1.18b. Using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model built on these cash flows, Simply Wall St applies analyst forecasts where available and then extends the projections. For example, free cash flow for 2026 is modeled at $1.15b and 2027 at $1.22b, then extrapolated out to 2035, with discounted values for those future years ranging from about $1.05b down to roughly $0.53b.

On this basis, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $224.83 per share. Compared with the current share price around $155, the DCF outcome suggests the stock is about 30.9% undervalued on these assumptions.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Gartner is undervalued by 30.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 61 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Gartner Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It connects directly to what the business is currently earning and what investors as a group are willing to pay for those earnings.

What counts as a fair P/E depends heavily on growth expectations and risk. Higher expected earnings growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually align with a lower P/E.

Gartner currently trades on a P/E of 15.01x. That sits below the IT industry average of about 19.26x and close to its peer group average of 13.86x, so on simple comparisons the valuation does not look stretched.

Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 26.92x, a proprietary estimate of what Gartner’s P/E could be given its earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk factors. This Fair Ratio can offer a more tailored anchor than raw industry or peer averages because it adjusts for company specific characteristics rather than treating all IT names as alike.

Since Gartner’s current P/E of 15.01x is below the Fair Ratio of 26.92x, this approach indicates that the shares appear undervalued on earnings.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Gartner Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation, so Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach a clear story about Gartner to the numbers by linking your view of its future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast and then to a Fair Value that you can easily compare with the current price. This can be updated automatically as fresh news or earnings arrive, and viewed alongside what other investors are thinking on the Community page. For example, one investor might lean toward a higher Fair Value near US$255 if they focus on AI tools, recurring revenues and buybacks. Another might anchor closer to US$150 if they are more concerned about AI competition, pricing pressure and slower growth.

For Gartner, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Gartner Narratives:

Fair value in this narrative: US$190.46 per share

Implied valuation gap versus the last close around US$155.42: about 18% below this fair value

Revenue growth assumption: 3.74%

• Analysts in this narrative see demand for AI, digital transformation and complex IT decisions supporting Gartner's recurring revenues and margins over time.
• They highlight ongoing investment in tools like AskGartner, proprietary datasets and buybacks as important drivers for earnings per share and resilience.
• Key risks include generative AI alternatives, client cost cutting, procurement constraints and reliance on subscription renewals that could affect revenue growth and margins.

Fair value in this narrative: US$150.00 per share

Implied valuation gap versus the last close around US$155.42: about 4% above this fair value

Revenue growth assumption: 0.93%

• This narrative focuses on the risk that free AI tools and in house research reduce Gartner's data edge and pressure pricing and future revenue.
• It also flags high fixed costs, reliance on large enterprises and governments and new competitors as potential constraints on margins and earnings.
• Supportive factors include AI driven offerings, client retention and buybacks, but the overall view is that these may only be enough to justify a fair value around US$150.

Do you think there's more to the story for Gartner? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.