• If you are wondering whether Boeing shares at around US$219.02 offer good value today, it helps to break the story into recent price moves, news flow and what the numbers say about valuation.
• Over the last week the stock is up 1.9%, while it is down 5.8% over the past month, with a year to date decline of 3.8% and a 1 year return of 8.9%. This sits alongside a 7.0% annualised return over 3 years and a 14.0% decline over 5 years.
• Recent price moves sit against a backdrop of ongoing headlines around Boeing, including continued focus on aircraft safety, production quality and regulatory oversight, as well as updates on large commercial jet orders and delivery schedules. Together, these news items shape how investors think about both the company’s upside potential and the risks attached to the stock.
• Boeing currently scores 3 out of 6 on Simply Wall St’s valuation checks. The sections ahead will compare different valuation approaches to that score, and then finish by showing a broader way to think about what the stock might be worth over time.

Approach 1: Boeing Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of the cash Boeing could generate in the future, then discounts those cash flows back into today’s dollars to arrive at an estimated intrinsic value per share.

For Boeing, the latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of about $476.6m. Analysts and Simply Wall St projections point to free cash flow of $2.4b in 2026, rising to $6.4b in 2027, $10.0b in 2028, $12.5b in 2029 and $14.6b in 2030, with later years extrapolated rather than directly forecast by analysts. All figures are in $.

Using these cash flow projections in a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model produces an estimated intrinsic value of about $348.25 per share. Compared with a recent share price around $219.02, this suggests that the stock appears 37.1% undervalued on this DCF view.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Boeing is undervalued by 37.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 48 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Boeing Price vs Earnings

For companies that are generating or expected to generate earnings, the P/E ratio is a common way to think about how much you are paying for each dollar of profit. What counts as a “normal” P/E often reflects how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings appear to be, with higher growth and lower perceived risk typically lining up with higher multiples.

Boeing currently trades on a P/E of about 89.83x. That sits well above the Aerospace & Defense industry average of around 35.63x and a peer average of 34.68x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Boeing is 68.68x, which represents the P/E that its model suggests might be appropriate given factors such as earnings growth estimates, the company’s industry, profit margins, market capitalization and risk profile.

This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison to peers or the broad industry, because it adjusts for company specific characteristics rather than assuming that all stocks should trade on similar multiples. Comparing Boeing’s current P/E of 89.83x with the Fair Ratio of 68.68x indicates that the stock is trading above the level suggested by that model.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose Your Boeing Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation. This is where Narratives come in, giving you a clear story behind your numbers by linking your view on Boeing’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast, and then to a Fair Value that you can compare with today’s price.

A Narrative on Simply Wall St’s Community page is essentially your investment story written into the model. You set assumptions, see how they translate into a Fair Value, and then quickly judge whether the current Boeing share price looks above or below that line for your own decision making.

Because Narratives update automatically when new data and news arrive, you are not locked into a one off view. Your assumptions remain visible and adjustable as earnings releases, large orders or balance sheet changes come through.

For Boeing, one investor might build a bullish Narrative that looks closer to the higher Fair Values on the platform, such as around US$300.00 per share with stronger revenue growth and margins. Another might lean toward the more cautious end, closer to Fair Values around US$206.79 or US$218.90 with more modest growth and profitability. Seeing these side by side helps you decide which story you believe is more realistic before acting on the stock.

For Boeing, here are previews of two leading Boeing Narratives to make your analysis easier:

The first is a bullish view that focuses on higher production, a large backlog and improving margins.

Fair Value in this Narrative: US$300.00 per share

Gap to this Fair Value vs the recent price around US$219.02: the price sits about 27% below the Narrative Fair Value

Revenue growth assumption: 14.77% a year

• Assumes Boeing works through its commercial and defense backlog at stronger rates, with higher production, improving margins and an 8.68% profit margin over time.
• Builds in a 28.79x future P/E multiple and an 8.29% discount rate to arrive at a Fair Value of US$300.00 per share.
• Relies on continued large aircraft orders, services growth and higher quality execution while acknowledging risks from quality issues, debt and competition.

The second Narrative takes a more cautious view of what investors are paying for those earnings, even while still incorporating expectations of revenue and profit improvement.

Fair Value in this Narrative: US$206.79 per share

Gap to this Fair Value vs the recent price around US$219.02: the price sits about 5.9% above the Narrative Fair Value

Revenue growth assumption: 15.00% a year

• Assumes revenue rises toward roughly US$110b with earnings building to between US$5b and US$8b, but argues that at those levels a mid cycle P/E of about 18x is more appropriate.
• Uses a future mid case price of US$180.00, discounted back at 10% a year, to suggest that the stock already reflects a substantial degree of recovery optimism.
• Flags execution, supply chain, leverage, competition and regulatory setbacks as key risks that could keep returns closer to moderate rather than very strong outcomes.

These two Narratives illustrate how different assumptions on revenue growth, margins, P/E multiples and risk can lead to very different views on what Boeing is worth, even when they start from similar data. Your next step is to decide which story, or combination of stories, best fits your own expectations before making any decision on the stock.

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Boeing on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Do you think there's more to the story for Boeing? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.